“You ask for miracles, Theo? I give you the Virginia Democrats.” —Hans Gruber, possibly
You probably know that I’m not exactly up on the GOP’s chances of holding the House in November, but there’s a glimmer of light ahead, thanks in no small part to overreach by Virginia Democrats — and Republicans finally wising up.
Over the weekend, Roger Kimball looked at the Supreme Court’s Louisiana v. Callais decision and declared that “the decision will net Republicans some 8-12 additional House seats in the midterms. In other words, Republicans will not only hold the House; they will also expand their majority.”
Reporting for the (extremely) left-wing Mother Jones, Ari Berman called the decision “devastating” for Democrats, but also noted that “the only silver lining for those harmed may be that the ruling came be too late to have a major impact on the 2026 midterm elections.”
“Candidate filing deadlines have passed in most Southern states; primary elections have been held already in North Carolina, Texas, and Mississippi; and Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia have mailed ballots for upcoming May primaries.”
That’s six deep-red states out of play for 2026 redistricting, so it isn’t that Roger’s numbers are wrong, but they might be premature. Don’t get me wrong — I pray he’s right.
So for the moment, the GOP’s odds remain too long for comfort. Democrats are comfortably ahead on the 2026 generic congressional ballot, typically the best indicator of what happens on election day. The RealClearPolitics average has them up by 5.6 points. Overcoming a number like that requires the kind of enthusiasm that, frankly, much of the Trump electorate just doesn’t enjoy right now.
The Iran War — while totally necessary, they were about to get nukes — has gas prices uncomfortably close to Biden-era highs. Food prices, particularly beef, remain stubbornly high. And the GOP Congress refuses to do a damn thing about election integrity.
I’m looking at you, Sen. John Thune.
That last one is a real problem, for reasons both practical (election integrity, duh) and political (Trump voters need this win). We sent the GOP to Congress to undo the damage done to our election system, and they have yet to deliver. You had one job.
But sometimes — as we learned from watching Hans Gruber make the FBI sing to his tune in Die Hard — knowing the other guy’s procedure is a yuge part of winning. Which brings us to Virginia, Indiana, and the GOP’s improved chances come November.
By now, you know what happened in Virginia. State Democrats — led by non-former CIA spook Gov. Abigail Spanberger — did what they’re now basically compelled to do, and broke every law on their way to gerrymandering the GOP into oblivion. Then the state Supreme Court knocked them down and declared the illegal referendum void.
And Another Thing: Please note that the Virginia Supreme Court did not say that Democrats can’t gerrymander the GOP into oblivion. It just said you actually have to follow the law of the land to do it. At the next court-approved opportunity, you can be sure they’ll get it done.
In Indiana, GOP voters took one look at the new rules and voted out every RINO they could in the state’s primary election last week. Most of the Republican state senators who blocked Indiana’s congressional redraw got hammered by Trump-backed challengers, and Gov. Mike Braun is pushing again for redistricting. If successful, that could net the Republicans one or two more seats.
Altogether, in states where it isn’t already too late, and including states like Florida that have already redistricted, Republicans could redraw themselves between 11 and 14 seats before the midterms.
Is that enough to overcome the generic congressional ballot deficit? There’s just no way to know this far out, although if Sen. Thune would stop posturing on X long enough to pass the Save Act, I’d bet next month’s car payment that the GOP holds the House.
Grrrr.
Looking ahead, however, 2028 looks really good.
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