Clarity about the California gubernatorial election hit me while watching candidate Eric Swalwell’s downfall and withdrawal over a sex scandal.
What makes this shakeup so significant is the fact that California uses a “jungle primary” to determine the candidates who will be on the ballot come election day. A jungle primary is a nonpartisan primary election where all candidates for the office run on the same ballot, regardless of their political party. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, the top two candidates advance to a runoff election—regardless of party affiliation. It can be two people from different political parties or two from the same party.
The people who drafted this tragic idea clearly never thought through what would happen in a situation like Swalwell’s.
Thankfully for defenders of the jungle primary, Swalwell’s withdrawal happened before the primary on June 2. But what if the cascade of allegations and Swalwell’s subsequent withdrawal had happened a month and a half later?
For starters, Swalwell’s name would have remained on the ballot.
Since the political parties do not help choose candidates, they are not able to put forth a replacement in the case of a late withdrawal. If the termination of the candidacy for either reason happened within 60 days of the election, the errant candidate would simply remain on the ballot.
The Democrats would be precluded from mounting a write-in campaign for a particular candidate if only a Republican were still in the race. California law specifically prevents write-in campaigns in general elections when there has been a jungle primary.
Under the old system where candidates were put forward through a process determined by a political party, the party whose candidate withdrew could choose a replacement.
It isn’t all that surprising that the jungle primary system isn’t designed to deal with this kind of situation. The system was established in California through a political compromise about an unrelated issue.
During the 2009 budget crisis, the Democrats and then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger needed one Republican vote in the state senate to pass the budget. They convinced State Sen. Abel Maldonado to vote in favor, but his vote came with a cost. Maldonado insisted that the ballot includes a constitutional amendment establishing the new voting system.
Maldonado envisioned himself as a political moderate and had a dream that the new system would produce more moderate candidates. The proposition was pitched as such and passed on the 2010 primary ballot when a more partisan voter populace participated with 53.7% of the vote. The law took effect in 2012.
Since then, all levels of California’s state government have been co-opted significantly by the Left. Democrats hold all state offices and have a supermajority (two-thirds of members) in both the Assembly and the Senate. Not only has the jungle primary turned the entire state government over to Democrats, but the people holding the positions have moved significantly to the Left.
Jungle primaries have not brought about more moderate politicians. Instead, they have produced more radical elected officials.
Since the principal goal for establishing jungle primaries in California has not been accomplished, why would anyone expect the system to be able to deal with “Swalwell-like” situations? Or even a candidate’s death during the campaign?
As it stands, Swalwell’s name will still be on the primary ballot come June 2. There are 35 candidates on the ballot, and he may yet come out as one of the two top candidates.
If they are canny enough, Republican voters could actually use this to their advantage. Here is a shenanigan the Democrats have accomplished in the past that the Republicans could pull off this time.
Let’s say that Republican Steve Hilton maintains his support and comes out on top. Voters supporting the other major Republican candidate, Chad Bianco, could decide en masse to vote for Swalwell. Swalwell (with some Democrats still supporting him) could come in second place.
Then the Democrats would be stuck with a damaged, withdrawn candidate on the November ballot.
Genius idea this jungle primary. And we are stuck with it.
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