Republicans had hoped that a full-court presidential push would rescue the GOP from a normal midterm setback. It might be a little worse than that – at least in Texas.
Decision Desk HQ just called the Senate race for James Talarico, who became the first Democrat in 32 years to win a statewide election:
Decision Desk HQ projects James Talarico wins the TX US Senate General Election #DecisionMade: 10:14 PM EST Follow live results here: https://t.co/O6f6RF1XKc https://t.co/lxmiHe8EJH
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2026
Did Ken Paxton fumble a winnable seat by challenging John Cornyn? Tap the brakes on that assumption. At this moment, with 69% of precincts reporting, Gov. Greg Abbott trails Gina Hinojosa by seven points. That’s narrower than the Talarico-Paxton gap (12 points), but it’s still a substantial lead.
The real story in Texas is shown in this graphic:
There Is Not A Single County In Texas That Hasn’t Swung MASSIVELY Toward Democrats Tonight! https://t.co/ZD74CrfPaM
— John Basham (@JohnBasham) November 4, 2026
This would suggest that Democrats really did deliver on a massive turnout in a midterm cycle, here in Texas and elsewhere. It seems very doubtful that John Cornyn would have withstood this kind of wave, not if Abbott’s struggling to ride it out. Paxton’s baggage and lack of campaign charisma didn’t help, but that’s not the factor that created this result.
So what did? Frankly, it looks mainly like a mid-range or high-range midterm rebuke to the party in power when gas prices are high, inflation is high, and an unpopular war is dragging on far longer than promised. It seems very likely that the Democrats will end up controlling both chambers of Congress, but that puts Trump in the same position Obama was in after the 2014 midterms – and he too will have a pen and a phone to deal with it as well.
Stay tuned, but just remember that we have been here before, especially after the 2006 election. We will just need to muscle up over the next two years to set up the 2028 presidential cycle.
Update: And now we have a hard-left governor in Texas:
#BREAKING: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has conceded the election to State Rep. Gina Hinojosa. He just said in a speech to his supporters at his Austin watch party that he has called Hinojosa to congratulate her on her win.
— FOX 7 Austin (@fox7austin) November 4, 2026
Not sure what that means, but hopefully the GOP will control the legislature and hold the line on taxes.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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