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BREAKING: Trump Announces ‘Project Freedom’ to ‘Guide’ Neutral Ships Out of the Gulf; UPDATE: No Escorts – HotAir

UPDATES BELOW: The administration is now saying that the Navy will not escort the ships, and “guide” just means giving them directions for the best way out. It’s not quite clear what is new about this, other than reiterating a threat to sink Iranian speedboats attacking ships. It may be a way to reset the clock for the War Powers Act. He declared that with the ceasefire, the hostilities were over; if Iran attacks a civilian ship and we respond, this might count in his mind as a new conflict. 





What this does mean, though, is that we will not be using our own warships in the Strait at this time, as many thought when Trump posted on Truth Social. It seems that the Navy’s assessment of the risk to our ships if we entered the Strait exceeded the benefits of a full escort. 

Here is CENTCOM’s post on Operation Freedom, which turns out to be slick enough to imply military escorts without actually promising them. 

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait.

“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.

Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced a new initiative, in partnership with the Department of War, to enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait. The Maritime Freedom Construct aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination, which will be critical during Project Freedom.

U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.





It implies escorts, but on further clarification of both Trump’s Truth Social post and the reports, the “guidance” will be the passing of intelligence, not actual military escorts. 

Take that as you will. 

ORIGINAL POST

Is Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz about to be broken? 

Or, perhaps, are hostilities about to erupt again? 

It could be both. In any of these cases, the gridlock is about to be broken come tomorrow morning. 

Trump is positioning this move as something short of establishing full and open navigation of the Strait, but rather as a humanitarian mission to free up stranded sailors and ships from neutral countries that are just trying to escape a war zone

The US will start guiding ships out of the Strait of Hormuz from Monday morning (Middle East Time), according to a Sunday statement by US President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social.

“This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my representatives are having very positive discussions with the country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all,” he said in the statement.

According to Trump, the operation will be centered on helping the vessels leave the Persian Gulf, with countries asking “the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait.”

“They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” he added.

According to his statement, the ships to be escorted out “will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation,” and he calls the operation a “humanitarian process” to save the crews of ships trapped in the Gulf.





This is an interesting strategy. It will enable hundreds of ships to leave the area, presumably laden with their cargo, stabilizing the oil market for a time,  without establishing full two-way traffic and normalization. No doubt that is the goal, but it gives Iran significant wiggle room to look the other way while negotiations carry on. 

Trump insists that they are, but one should never take anything Trump says in a negotiation at face value. Negotiations are entirely about persuasion, and Trump never lays all his cards on the table. 

This is a really bold move, as it would entail, one would assume, US Naval vessels going into dangerous waters with a hostile enemy that has vowed to keep us out. With all the talk of mines, suicide dolphins, and presumably a significant supply of drones and perhaps ship-killer missiles, the risk he is assuming is high. 

Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.”

“Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”





Modern naval vessels, aside from aircraft carriers, are not designed to withstand much damage, but rather to prevent threats from reaching them. They may still be quite hard to sink, but mission kills are much easier than in the past. A destroyer would be a very tempting target for Iran. 

If all Iran has are speedboats that can swarm, the US likely has the capacity to repel even a significant number of them with our combined air power and a destroyer’s defensive capabilities. On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine that a salvo of 5 supersonic ship killer missiles wouldn’t have a decent chance of hitting a ship. 

So what does Trump know that we don’t? Is this a sign that there may be more progress on negotiations and that this is a test of Iran’s good faith, or a high-risk, high-reward gamble? Are the mines cleared, or perhaps an unconventional route through the Strait plotted? 

The stakes are high, and the risk is significant. Tomorrow should be a very interesting day. 

May 1: War Powers letter formally ends hostilities, preserves force posture, asserts Article II constitutional authority.

May 3: “Project Freedom” announced as a humanitarian operation, not military.

Monday: US Navy escorts neutral commercial ships through Hormuz under freedom of navigation rights.

If Iran fires on it: that is Iran starting a new conflict. Trump is responding defensively, not attacking. No new War Powers clock starts because the US did not initiate hostilities. Iran did.





UPDATE: Trump administration officials are now saying that Trump’s Truth post was not meant to imply that US ships would be escorting ships through the Strait, but rather advising them on safer routes. 

Axios:

The latest: The new Hormuz Strait initiative will not necessarily include U.S. Navy ships escorting commercial ships, according to two American officials.

  • One of the officials said U.S. Navy ships will be “in the vicinity” in case they need to prevent Iran’s military from attacking commercial ships moving through the strait.
  • The officials said the U.S. navy is going to provide commercial ships with information on the best maritime lanes in the strait especially when it comes to using lanes that were not mined by the Iranian military.

What he’s saying: Trump wrote on Truth Social that countries from around that are not involved in the war but have ships that are stuck in the strait have asked the U.S. to help free them.

  • Many of these ships are running low on food, and other supplies for their crews and suffer from health and sanitary problems, Trump said.
  • ‘The Ships movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran,” Trump said.
  • “We have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” he added.







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