Let’s face it: the polls on Trump job approval are all over the map. They range from -8 by Reuters to +5 (51-47) with Rasmussen.
Napolitan News just joined the +10 camp (54-44), after dipping down to +4 (51-47) earlier in the month, making it almost the same as Rasmussen’s in raw approval when you exclude No Opinion. Rasmussen has Trump at 51% approval, Napolitan 54%, well within the margins of error.
Skeptics would argue that Napolitan and Rasmussen are right-leaning, but recent elections show that to be false–Rasmussen, at least, was pretty dead on in the last election while most of the other polls aside from Atlas Intel were dramatically left of the electorate, suggesting a systematic bias to the left as much as 7 or 8 points.
In other words, we have every reason to believe that Rasmussen and Napolitan are much closer to reality. We don’t KNOW that to be the case, but when polls like Quinnipiac, Reuters, and CNN show massive unreliability in the past, it’s smart to assume that they haven’t cleaned up their act since November.
If that sounds like a lot of uncertainty, all I can say is…there is uncertainty, so we have to acknowledge that while making judgment calls using past history to guide those jucgments.
President Trump Job Approval
54% Approve
44% Disapprove3,000 RV, March 6-13, 2025https://t.co/HrAYGYw8ip pic.twitter.com/U9zXLCvWfa
— Napolitan News Service (@NapolitanNews) March 15, 2025
Pollsters have a trick where they buttress their narrative before elections, showing results closer to what they want in the weeks and months before the election, before they crowd around a point right before the election to show something much closer to what they think the results will look like. This is called “covering their asses,” trying to hide the bias in their polls by coming relatively close to the outcome in their last polls so they can claim that they were in a realistic range right around election time.
Then, post-election, they go back to biasing their polls by using ridiculous assumptions again, buttressing the Narrative™.
The preferred narrative of the left-coded polls is that the “chaos” of Trump’s first weeks and the unpopularity of DOGE are killing Trump, so they create numbers showing that.
Rasmussen and Napolian were consistent in their polling, not showing implausible dramatic swings backing the Establishment narrative.
Skeptics may argue I am wishcasting, looking for data I like. All of us can fall into confirmation bias, of course. That would be a fairer criticism but for the fact that the “Trump sucks” polls are done by pollsters who showed Kamala Harris becoming wildly popular and was a sure winner for months.
As you may recall, we know Kamala Harris’ internal polls NEVER showed her ahead. So the claim that the public polls showing her surging were fake. Both Trump and Harris knew that she was behind, these other polls showed Trump ahead.
It’s the news media polls that were crap, not the supposedly “pro-Trump” polls.
The lesson? Trump is not cratering. He is holding steady.
The Democrats are, though. They are on a losing streak and in a civil war. The House is furious at the Senate, the Senate is scared to death of Trump, and they have no leader and keep making huge errors.
As Ed wrote earlier today, the Democrats had an atrocious week, and are setting themselves up for a few bad weeks (at least) coming up.
OF COURSE Trump is holding steady. His Republican base is energized, he only needs a minority of Independents to hold steady, and for the Democrats to keep looking insane. All of those conditions apply.
So take heart and as always ignore The Narrative™. Trump’s popularity may crater at some point for any of a number of reasons, but that time is certainly not now.
Stay the course. Stay excited. And hope Trump keeps winning and Democrats keep fighting each other.
