Nobel Peace Prize, anyone? If this actually holds up, it’d be tough to argue against it.
Not long after Ali Khamenei insisted that the Iranians would never surrender under fire, it certainly looks like they just did:
CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!
DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
So far, we haven’t seen anything from either country officially adopting the ceasefire, so keep that in mind.
Let’s assume Trump got this agreement from both parties. This came about a few hours after Iran put on a staged light show over Qatar, which clearly intended to give Khamenei a face-saving exit from an existential threat from Trump and the US military. It came less than two days after the US destroyed at least part of Iran’s nuclear-weapons development program. And it came an hour after Khamenei tweeted boldly about his courage from the safety of the bunker he apparently hasn’t left in twelve days:
Says the frightened little man hiding in his bunker while asking everyone else to martyr themselves.
cc:@yashar https://t.co/i90JZJDM6m
— Ed Morrissey (@EdMorrissey) June 23, 2025
This is what is known as peace through strength. The Israelis understand that, and we used to know it as well. We have relearned it in this administration, and now Iran has little choice but to either concede or watch its regime collapse. And it’s still not clear that a regime collapse won’t happen anyway.
VP J.D. Vance was in the middle of an interview with Bret Baier when Trump made the announcement. Vance made the point that Trump’s decisive action forced the mullahs to retreat, and now the world looks much different than it did two weeks ago, or two years ago:
.@VP reacts to the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement announced by President Trump: “The President without … having a single American casualty obliterated the Iranian nuclear program. We are now in a place where we weren’t a week ago.” pic.twitter.com/a5G88FfKuE
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 23, 2025
Vance raises an interesting point. If Iran could still build a nuclear weapon, they would have raced to do it over the last 12 days. The initial attacks of the IDF seem to have prevented it, likely because of their attacks on Isfahan and Natanz, as well as the elimination of their nuclear scientists. The strike on Fordow must have put a stake through the heart of the project, though, because it changed the orientation of the Iranian regime practically overnight. This fast agreement after their silly pas de deux over Qatar today speaks volumes on this point. They no longer have anything to protect — except their own hides.
That’s why Abbas Araghchi went to Moscow today, after trying to get France and Europeans to intercede with the US. That was the last gasp of the mullahs, an attempt to get the Russians to face off against Trump and threaten World War III. Putin isn’t interested in those stakes, and neither is China. The Iranians found out the hard way that they were all alone, and the only man who could stop the bombing was Trump.
Assuming Trump did get the ceasefire, that is. So far the Jerusalem Post and the Times of Israel are reporting on Trump’s announcement, but don’t have any reports on confirmation from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The Iranians are quiet too, although a couple of their mouthpieces on social media are calling this “fake news.” That’s a measure of how humiliating it will be to have to accept terms from the US to keep Tehran from getting pounded by the Israelis for another night. And despite all of the best propaganda efforts by the regime, everyone will understand exactly who won this war, and what it means for the claims to divine ordination for the Iranian theocracy.
Update: We have conflicting accounts on the status of an agreement. CNN says the Iranians haven’t even seen a proposal:
JUST IN 🔴
CNN, quoting an Iranian official, reports: “Tehran has received no ceasefire proposals. Claims by Israel and the U.S. are a ‘trick’ meant to justify continued aggression. Right now, the enemy is actively attacking Iran.”
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
A UK-based Arabic news service claims to have confirmation of the agreement, however:
UPDATE: Iranian sources confirm that ceasefire with Israel has been agreed. According to one source, the truce will go into effect at 3.30am Jerusalem time.https://t.co/9GLLK0el0D
— Mohammad Ali Shabani (@mashabani) June 23, 2025
Apparently, the Iranians were warned that their economic infrastructure would be targeted next if they didn’t throw in the towel:
Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire, informed Iranian sources have confirmed to Amwaj.media. The truce is expected to go into effect at 3.30 am Jerusalem time on June 23 for Iran, followed by Israel six hours later. After the 24-hour mark, the ceasefire will be followed by a “conclusion” to the conflict that erupted on June 13, when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran—on the eve of a sixth round of nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington. …
As Amwaj.media exclusively reported on June 22, Iran received prior notice of the US bombings along with a private communication from the Trump administration that it does not seek a broader conflict. That dynamic suggested that Trump seeks a repeat of the events of Jan. 2020, when Iran fired ballistic missiles at evacuated American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the US assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
At the time, Trump opted to absorb the largely symbolic Iranian strike, acknowledging that Tehran needed to save face. However, under current conditions, with the Islamic Republic perceived to be on the backfoot in the face of setbacks in the region—while under an ongoing Israeli attack which has left top military commanders and nuclear scientists dead—the US president’s tolerance for an Iranian response may be lower.
Israeli media on June 22 suggested that Tel Aviv may be ready for a ceasefire if Tehran stops firing missiles, but that Israel and the US could jointly attack economic and energy infrastructure in Iran with the aim of collapsing the Iranian state if the Islamic Republic does not take the offer.
“Tel Aviv” is used here because Arabic media refuses to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
Stay tuned for more developments.
Update: The Israeli cabinet is meeting now, presumably to discuss this agreement. The IDF just issued a new evacuation order for another part of Tehran as the Israelis target regime assets in the final hours before the ceasefire is reported to take initial effect. That’s how these agreements work; they usually have a start time to allow for the winding down of operations already under way, although all sides generally try to run up the score during that period, too. Still no solid confirmation on the agreement from the warring parties, but no official denials either.
