Last night, OSINTdefender reported that Iran-backed Houthi tribesmen again decided to attack a U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Harry S Truman, and her strike group, currently conducting operations against the Houthis — and I can’t stop laughing. I know I shouldn’t but I really can’t help it.
Coddling can lead to certain delusions about one’s capabilities and this is doubly true when one has been coddled by one’s enemies. Presidentish Joe Biden spent more than a year coddling the Houthis, giving them the impression that maybe — just maybe — they could directly take on an aircraft carrier and sink it, or at least hit it.
But there’s a new sheriff in town, and President Donald Trump isn’t coddling anybody.
Besides, normal people don’t typically appreciate just how difficult it can be to get a missile within striking distance of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier (CVN), but I’m here to change that. There’s a little math involved but it’s also really cool. Besides, I’ve had Grok do all the math for me (with ChatGPT checking Grok’s work).
Let’s pretend that the Houthis know within one square mile the location of the USS Truman. That seems unlikely since they don’t have satellites or, some days, even electricity. But let’s also say the Iranians get lucky in spotting one small ship in a big body of water and quickly pass on that information to their pals in the mountains of Yemen.
The Houthis get their targeting data and launch a missile. The launch is detected immediately (we have the means), and the Truman’s commander orders full speed in some random direction. A CVN can make 30-plus knots (35 MPH or more) and keep going at flank speed without worrying about running out of fuel.
Assuming the Truman is roughly in the middle of the Red Sea, a Houthi missile needs 27 minutes to reach its target. In that time, traveling at 30 knots (a Nimitz-class CVN can probably do 32 or better, but I’m using the semi-official low-end figure) the circle of water that the Truman is in has increased somewhat. Instead of one square mile, it’s now in a circle of roughly 750 square miles. Instead of having to find a ship in a large city block, that missile must now find a ship in an area the size of the Raleigh-Cary Metro Area.
I shouldn’t have to mention that the ship is still traveling at 30 knots, and the missile is flying at something like Mach freakin’ 10 and has very, very little time to course-correct to target and hit something within those 750 square miles.
Recommended: Here’s the Dirty Little Secret Behind the Democrats’ Collapse
But I’ve left out one tiny little detail.
Based on previous encounters, possibly 45 minutes will pass between the time the location data has made its way to the Houthis and they get a missile launched. The Truman hasn’t been sitting still, sailing at something like 15 knots. So that one-square-mile circle is closer to 500 square miles by the time the Houthis launch their missile. Add another 27 minutes of flight time — and the Truman ordered to flank speed — that ship could be damn near anywhere, almost. That tiny circle of one square mile now covers almost 2,500 square miles. The entire state of Delaware is only 1,949.
I ran the same scenario through ChatGPT, and the results are less rosy, figuring the Houthis have a much shorter launch cycle:
- Cruise missile attack (Quds-3, Kh-55, Noor, etc.): The Truman moves 20+ miles, forcing a moving target correction, making countermeasures highly effective.
- Ballistic missile attack (Burkan-2H, etc.): The Truman moves 8–10 miles, meaning a well-guided missile might still strike, but missile defense systems have a better chance to intercept it.
Less rosy but still quite difficult.
Actually hitting a CVN is even harder because a CVN doesn’t travel alone but as part of a Carrier Strike Group (CSG). A CSG includes at least two guided missile destroyers (DDG) and an even larger guided missile cruiser (CG). They might look like ships, but, among other things, they’re highly mobile missile defense platforms — maybe the most advanced in the world.
Trying to get a missile or two past their defenses is a bit like trying to break into a vault at Fort Knox with a herring.
(With apologies to Monty Python.)
That isn’t to say that a CVN is impossible to target, even by the Houthis. There are reports that they got an anti-ship ballistic missile within about 650 feet of the USS Eisenhower last year. However, the Navy says there is “no truth to those rumors.”
A sea story? A lucky shot? A failure somewhere in our systems? We might never know.
But also keep in mind the terror-attack rule was established by the IRA more than 40 years ago. Following an unsuccessful attempt on UK PM Margaret Thatcher’s life, the IRA released this chilling statement: “Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always.”
Unlikely as it is, maybe someday they’ll get a missile with near-perfect targeting at a CVN, past the CSG’s antimissile defenses, and score a hit. But today is probably not that day — and that day will never come if President Trump is as serious about eliminating the Houthi threat to global shipping as he claims.
Finally, for anyone who had no idea what the herring reference was all about, here’s a brief clip from “Monty Python and the Holy Grail.”
The Houthis aren’t quite as absurd as Python’s Knights Who Say Ni, and their intent is far more deadly. But in directly taking on the Truman CSG — finally with a commander-in-chief who means business — they’ve biting off far more than they can chew.
P.S. Thanks so much for reading. If you’d like to join some of the smartest voices on the internet in our Virtually Troll-Free™ comments section — plus get access to exclusive essays, podcasts, and video live chats with your favorite writers — consider becoming a VIP member with this 60% off promotion offer. Don’t forget to use the promo code FIGHT at checkout!
