DAMASCUS — It was a development in the Syrian drama almost as unexpected as the stunningly swift fall of the Assad regime that had dominated this country for decades.
Syria’s interim president and the commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces signed a landmark accord on Monday that could profoundly alter the trajectory of a country already facing deep uncertainty.
Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, until recently the head of the Islamist-led rebel force that overthrew the government of President Bashar Assad last last year, and SDF commander Mazlum Kobane agreed to merge the SDF into Syrian state institutions — a move aimed at healing a nation long torn by sectarian strife, political instability, territorial divisions and economic collapse.
And given Syria’s central position in the region, the surprise deal will likely have profound consequences for the U.S., Russia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Israel, along with powers across the unsettled Middle East.
The pact sets a series of concrete benchmarks designed to overhaul Syria’s security and governance framework. Its key provisions are a nationwide ceasefire, reopening border crossings and airports, and an ambitious effort to revive oil and gas fields in northeastern Syria that have benefited from being under de facto Kurdish control. The parties say they want to implement the deal by the end of the year, an ambitious timetable.
Some say the deal is a necessary step toward national reconciliation, but there is considerable skepticism in Damascus and capitals around the region, given the potholed road ahead.
Critics argue that the pact may serve more as a political maneuver to contain regional crises than a genuine drive for deep reform. Unresolved issues — from the fate of thousands of ISIS detainees held in Kurdish-run prisons to external interference by regional powers — leave the nation’s future uncertain.
In Damascus, a palpable anxiety hangs over everyday life. Jafar Khaduor, a 24-year-old law graduate from Baidar al-Rafi in western Homs, recalled the terror that gripped his Alawite minority community during the early days of the new regime, whose troops clashed with forces believed to be sympathetic to exiled President Bashar Assad, himself a member of the Alawite faith.
“We were so afraid to leave our homes because the surge in hate-filled, sectarian rhetoric made us worry that someone in Damascus might expose us,” Mr. Khaduor said. “The government’s mishandling of the crisis only deepened my fear of what might happen if the chaos spreads.”
Uncertain future
Mr. Khaduor’s account reflects a broader mood in the capital. Although Damascus is known for a relatively balanced mix of moderate Sunnis and Alawites, the absence of a formal constitution and a stable administrative framework leave residents uncertain about the future.
“Every day is full of uncertainty,” he added. “Failed attempts to integrate security forces on the coast, rising crime and a flood of unregulated weapons make it feel like a powder keg waiting to blow.”
Many Damascenes see the accord with the Kurds as a deliberate political move to stem a crisis that could have derailed Syria’s broader transformation. Ali Yasser Muhammad, a postgraduate student at Damascus University, said the deal is a strategic effort to ease escalating tensions.
“There are factions within the democratic movement that vehemently oppose merging their institutions with the central government,” Mr. Muhammad said. “They’re especially nervous about Turkey’s role because of our cultural differences, while elements tied to the Kurdish Workers’ Party — and even some international players — seem poised to block the deal.”
Mr. Muhammad argued that the pact presents the fledgling new government with a stark choice: either confront powerful neighbor Turkey — often called Syria’s “nurturing mother” — or allow Ankara to expand its influence within Syrian borders.
“There’s a constant worry that not everyone will abide by the terms of this agreement,” he added. He also expressed concern about the future role of U.S. forces, a deployment of an estimated 2,000 American troops the Pentagon says was posted in eastern Syria to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State terror group.
“Even though President Trump has hinted at a withdrawal, America will likely maintain an indirect presence through its economic ties in oil and gas or by using its leverage to pressure Damascus.”
Washington quickly added its support to the new accord, which — on paper — would resolve one of the knottiest problems threatening the course of post-Assad Syria..
In a March 11 statement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration “welcomes the recently announced agreement between the Syrian interim authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate the northeast into a unified Syria. We reaffirm our support for a political transformation demonstrating credible, non-sectarian governance as the best path to avoid further conflict.”
But he suggested that signing the deal was not enough to ease Washington’s concerns: “We will continue to watch the decisions made by the interim authorities, noting with concern the recent deadly violence against minorities.”
The accord’s core is an effort to address deep-seated grievances among Syria’s Kurdish community. Hussam Botani, director of the Istanbul-based Center for International and Strategic Policy Studies, described the pact as a historic turning point in how the Syrian state treats its Kurds, who also have significant minority populations in Iraq, Turkey and Iran.
“Under the [Assad] regime, the Kurds were systematically marginalized,” Mr. Botani said. “Many were stripped of their citizenship during Hafez al-Assad’s rule, their lands confiscated, and forced demographic changes imposed under the guise of agrarian reform.”
Mr. Botani noted that even Mr. Kobane, the SDF commander, lost his citizenship and now must travel using a forged passport or an assumed name — a stark symbol of decades of neglect. He stressed that integrating the Kurds into the new government is critical for mending old wounds and building a resilient state.
“This deal has defused a ticking time bomb that could have derailed the entire process of rebuilding our nation,” Mr. Botani explained. “Had Arab and Kurdish forces clashed, Syria might have plunged even deeper into chaos.”
Beyond redressing historical injustices, Mr. Botani sees strategic benefits in absorbing Kurdish forces into state structures, while dealing a blow to a key U.S. adversary.
“By incorporating the Kurds, Damascus can address long-standing ethnic grievances while building a strategic barrier against external destabilizers — particularly from Iran,” he said. “Iran’s strategy of stoking internal conflict has long been used to weaken Syria, and this agreement forces Tehran to reconsider its tactics.”
Economist Amal Muqdad, a business major at Damascus University from Sahnaya, said the deal between the new government and the Kurdish population sends “a clear message: Syrians reject division.”
She continued, “When citizens take pride in their surroundings, it tells the world we are not merely victims — we are capable of change. That change will build a stronger, more resilient Syria.”
Prison problem
But all concede that significant hurdles remain.
One of the most contentious issues is the future control of prisons in Kurdish-controlled areas that house hardened ISIS fighters. Mr. Khaduor voiced strong skepticism about the government’s ability to manage these facilities, particularly given the distraction of recent communal clashes with Alawite elements on the other side of the country.
“Right now, the SDF is seen as the real guardian of these prisons,” he said. “There are groups, allegedly from the Ministry of Defense, carrying out systematic killings on the coast. With the SDF backed by U.S. and international partners, it seems unlikely that control will be transferred until the new government proves it can govern effectively.”
Mr. Khaduor also noted that the ISIS prison issue has implications beyond Syria.
“After the bloody events on the coast, Iraq quickly bolstered its border defenses,” he explained. “If Damascus can’t secure these prisons, the risk of renewed violence — or even an [Islamic State] breakout — will be very high.”
Mr. Botani warned that failure to secure the ISIS prisons and the al-Hawl camp, which houses about 50,000 people, including families of ISIS members, could trigger a cascade of violence across the region.
“Without robust reform, Syria could easily slip back into the chaos that has defined our history,” he said.
Regional dynamic
The accord’s effect on regional power dynamics is also drawing sharp scrutiny. Mr. Muhammad noted that Turkey’s involvement in the deal in particular could have far-reaching consequences.
“According to [Syrian Democratic Council member] Ali Rahmoun, Turkey is a part of this agreement and will push to secure its own guarantees,” he said. “This might involve deploying troops along our borders to fend off further attacks and to closely monitor the SDF’s actions.”
While Turkey may gain strategic leverage, especially regarding migration and regional influence, its participation could upset the delicate balance the pact is meant to create, especially given the long hostility between Ankara and armed Kurdish elements both inside and beyond Turkey’s borders.
U.S. influence remains another critical factor. Despite hints that President Trump might withdraw American forces inside Syria, Washington has long backed the SDF and played a pivotal role in shaping the accord.
“There were real fears that Trump would pull U.S. troops out even before he was elected,” Mr. Muhammad said. “Even if U.S. forces eventually leave, their influence will linger through economic ties and diplomatic pressure.”
The aftershocks don’t end there: Mr. Botani argued that the agreement could force Iran to rethink its long-standing strategy of inciting internal strife.
“Iran’s entire plan was based on igniting conflict to weaken Syria,” he said. “This deal forces Tehran to change its tactics and could significantly limit its ability to destabilize our country.” If Damascus fully implements the pact, Mr. Botani believes it could serve as a strategic shield along the Syrian coast, a potent countermeasure to Iran’s ambitions.
At the same time, speculation is rife about a potential “Turkish rule” in parts of Syria. Recent comments by Abdullah Ocalan, the long-jailed leader of the Kurdish separatist force the PKK and Turkish officials have led some to suggest that Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan may be steering key elements of the deal — with an American nod — to secure Turkey’s foothold in the region.
“There’s talk that Erdogan has engineered parts of this agreement to protect Turkey’s interests,” Mr. Muhammad said. “If Turkey’s role grows, it could upend the balance of power in Syria and the wider region.”
Adding another twist to the unfolding drama, in a historic move that may signal an end to decades of conflict, Mr. Ocalan called on his organization to disarm and dissolve. The PKK, designated as a terrorist group by the United States and other nations, has long battled Turkey, with affiliates active in Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Mr. Ocalan’s call has raised hopes for a renewed peace process. At the same time, however, Ankara has condemned the Syrian accord, arguing that it legitimizes the Syrian Kurdish authority — a group Turkey sees as an extension of the PKK — which complicates its own security objectives in northern Syria.
The Syrian government is pushing further reforms to build on this momentum. Mr. al-Sharaa, the Syrian interim president, signed a similar cooperation pact with Syria’s Druze community on Wednesday and a day later, signed an interim constitutional declaration setting out a five-year pathway to write a permanent constitution and hold elections on a new government.
The interim president and onetime rebel fighter declared the interim constitution marked “a new history for Syria, where we replace oppression with justice.”
• Gilgamesh Nabeel reported from Istanbul.
