For the last two weeks, the Protection Racket Media has salivated over the “civil war” in MAGAworld over Donald Trump’s handling of the Iran-Israel war. Media orgs have made any debate among Republicans over the options into a sign that Trump’s support would soon collapse, and that his political leverage would dissipate with it. We have heard more about Thomas Massie in two weeks than we’ve heard about any one non-leadership congressman not named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in months.
So … has MAGAworld really come apart at the seams? If these tensions exist, the strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan must have radicalized them … no? No, according to a new poll of Trump taken since the strikes on Saturday. It’s a smallish sample for a national poll, but the results are not exactly close:
Ninety percent of President Donald Trump’s voters support the U.S. strikes that decimated Iran’s nuclear program, according to a new poll, undercutting media claims that the attack set off a “MAGA civil war.”
The GrayHouse poll, conducted in the immediate wake of the Saturday strikes and obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, shows that 76 percent of Trump voters strongly support the attack, compared with 14 percent who somewhat support them. Eighty-four percent of respondents, meanwhile, agreed that the strikes were “limited military actions, not war.” Eighty-two percent called the attack “a smarter, more limited operation that can achieve U.S. objectives without leading to a wider war.” …
The poll’s findings stand in stark contrast to mainstream media coverage that warned of a “civil war” and “split” within the MAGA base over Trump’s support for Israel in the war as well as his decision to strike Iran’s nuclear program. Though prominent Republican isolationist voices like Tucker Carlson broke with Trump over the war, polls showed little daylight between the president and his supporters.
A couple of caveats should get made about this poll. I’m not familiar with GrayHouse; to my knowledge, this is the first result we’ve seen from this pollster. They polled 450 self-identified Trump voters, which is small for national results, and it also runs the risk of sample bias. With that said, the results seem to indicate that the sample is at least reliable enough for analysis. Trump gets very high approval marks overall (96/4) as one would expect from Trump voters within six months of his inauguration — perhaps a wee bit high, but in this case, the more MAGA the sample, the more useful the poll actually is.
And it is interesting to note that the 96/4 overall rating becomes 90/9 on the question of the strikes. There is a marginal amount of dissent within this voter set, but so marginal as to be close to statistical noise. The Free Beacon covered the important toplines except for one, and it’s worth noting:
Q12. Which of the following statements comes closer to your view about preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons?
- Military strikes are the only effective way to stop Iran’s nuclear program since diplomatic efforts have failed — 74%
- Diplomatic negotiations should continue before resorting to military action, even if talks have not been successful up to this point– 22%
This was the heart of the neo-isolationist position — that we had more options than just military strikes. This gets significantly more support than the disapproval numbers for Trump, although it is still less than a quarter of Trump’s voter base. There clearly was an audience for the pushback against action against Iran, and a significant number of Trump voters thought that we had not yet exhausted diplomatic options as of Saturday night. (I disagree, but that is beside the point here.) That doesn’t mean all 22% were hyperventilating about World War III, however, although they may be getting concerned about a “forever war” in the Middle East.
If that’s the case, then why did Trump get 90% support for the strikes? I suspect this is a fait accompli effect, or a rally effect, if you prefer. The deed was done, and it was apparently done well and accomplished its mission. The poll had already been taken by the time Trump announced the ceasefire, so it may not have been clear that Iran would fold its hand afterward at that point, but Trump’s action clearly reset the 46-year conflict. Success breeds support, but also, these numbers show that the gains here were probably marginal from previously established overwhelming approval.
We also have other, less direct data on the question of a MAGA “civil war.” Harvard-Harris CAPS released its June results from their monthly longitudinal polling just before Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, and that also didn’t show much evidence of a serious party split. At that time, 82% of GOP voters approved of Trump’s handling of the crisis, 85% supported Trump’s negotiations with Iran to end their nuclear program, and 85% opposed allowing Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. By more than a 2:1 margin at that time two weeks ago, Republican voters supported military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear-development facilities:
Clearly, the MAGA civil war existed mainly in the imaginations of the Protection Racket Media.
How do we know these results reflect reality? ABC News is already making excuses for The Civil War That Wasn’t:
President Donald Trump’s decision to order U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites may have unsettled the Middle East, but the operation — which the administration argued was narrowly targeted at Iran’s nuclear program — appeared to bring most of the Republican Party back into balance in support of the president.
Ahem. As the numbers clearly show, “most of the Republican Party” was firmly in support of Trump all along. A real news report would read like this: Despite our best efforts to lift up fringe voices and claim them to be mainstream MAGA, Trump voters never drifted away at all.
Of course, the Protection Racket Media gave up honest reporting a long time ago. They are fully invested in providing an amplification service for the progressive elites’ Narrative Du Jour, while wondering why no one takes them seriously any longer.
Also, the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today’s show features:
- When it comes to coverage of Donald Trump and the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, some things Andrew Malcolm and I just can’t explain.
- When it comes to Margaret Brennan’s embarrassing interview of Marco Rubio, some things you just can’t explain about that, too.
- In fact, the Left is having a very tough time explaining its freak-out over the weekend about Trump, especially in the media — and Andrew and I have explanations about that, as well as much more.
The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!
The Protection Racket Media will continue to push progressive narratives and their own fantasy world. They will also continue to attack and marginalize their competition — independent platforms and voices like ours, who call out their lies and spin while defending free speech, debate, and dissent. However, these media mouthpieces and their allies continue to pressure advertisers to pull out of our markets with their corrupt “fact check” operations and “misinformation” ratings services.
Our readers make the difference by joining our VIP Membership program — and you can join us as well! Choose VIP to support Hot Air and access our premium content, VIP Gold to extend your access to all Townhall Media platforms and participate in this show, or VIP Platinum to get access to even more content and discounts on merchandise. Use the promo code FIGHT to join or to upgrade your existing membership level today, and get 60% off!
