Earlier today, while hosting Hugh Hewitt’s show, I asked former Senator Jim Talent whether we could expect Israel to finally attack Iranian nuclear sites, after the mullahs refused to stop enriching uranium. Talent hedged his bets, wisely, but noted that negotiations appeared to be going nowhere. We both agreed that action seemed inevitable.
And as it turned out, highly imminent:
The Israeli Air Force conducted a strike in Iran on Thursday, according to two sources with knowledge of the operation. It’s not yet clear what Israel is targeting.
That’s perhaps a safe position for reporting at the moment, but there’s not much doubt as to what Israel would target. Trying to decapitate the regime in a single mission, even with multiple aircraft, is too dicey. The real threat to Israel now is an Iranian nuclear weapon, so if they are taking this risk, that’s the only target worth it.
Either way, this war will expand unless the Iranian regime falls. And the Iranians are already threatening to retaliate against US assets, which is why the Trump administration began recalling non-essential personnel from the region:
The big picture: Iran has vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region in the event of any attack on its nuclear program.
- The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing diplomats and military families in Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait who could be in harm’s way.
- The U.S. has also boosted air defenses around several of its sources in the Gulf.
- Even if Israel does not directly strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, the U.S. could be caught up in Iran’s retaliation.
Israel is calling it a “pre-emptive strike,” which again suggests that the nuclear sites will be the targets:
“Following the State of Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future,” Katz says.
He says he has signed “a special order, according to which a special state of emergency will be imposed in the home front throughout the entire State of Israel.”
They are preparing for a massive counterattack in retaliation. The US is worried that Israel’s defenses won’t hold up against a full-scale missile attack from Iran:
US President Donald Trump’s special Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff has told Senate Republicans that if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Iranian Republic’s response could lead to a mass casualty event, according to a Thursday report.
Axios reported, citing a US official, that since the October attack, Iran has ramped up production of ballistic missiles to some 50 per month. The Islamic Republic’s goal is to produce more missiles than Israel has interceptors, the official said.
Does Israel have enough interceptors? Or have they prepared for this by having a plan to disable at least part of such an attack? It seems unlikely that the Iranians have made the same mistake Hezbollah did in their pager purchasing. However, the Israelis have found ways to hack Iranian systems in the past.
We’re about to find out some of these answers now, though. We’ll update as developments warrant.
