Happy Labor Day to all you hard-working laborers! (And/or pregnant women: Wouldn’t it be deeply poetic to go into labor on Labor Day?)
It’s also kinda/sorta contradictory that we celebrate Labor Day by NOT working. But hey, a day off is a day off, and there’s still college football to watch — so your humble scribe/PR guru ain’t gonna rock the boat. Instead, I’m gonna embalm myself in a cocoon of beer, football, and barbeque, and try to kill a few gazillion braincells.
Pro Tip: If you’re going to the beach today, remember to ALWAYS wear your darkest sunglasses. Not only will it protect your eyes from UV damage, but it’ll also protect your face: If your glasses are dark enough, those super-hot babes in bikinis won’t realize you’ve been staring at ‘em nonstop, thus lowering the probability that their boyfriends will beat the crap out of you.
But Labor Day also signals the final countdown to Election Day. We’re officially 63 days away — only two months and half-a-week — from the most important off-year elections in a generation.
Virginia and New Jersey, I’m looking at you. (But only through sunglasses.)
New Jersey hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1988. Virginia used to lean red, but switched to purple and then turned solid blue under President Obama, and hasn’t gone for a Republican president since 2004.
That’s a 37-year winning streak for the Dems in Jersey; a 21-year winning streak for the Dems in Virginia. Aside from the occasional emergence of a Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.) or a Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.), these are the states that Democrats ought to win — especially when national issues are on the forefront.
In fact, the Dems ought to win Virginia and New Jersey by double digits.
After all, in 2017, Democratic candidate Phil Murphy won the New Jersey gubernatorial election by 14+ points, and Democratic candidate Ralph Northam won in Virginia by about 9 points in a closer-than-expected race. That is the precedent.
Which is why these two states are the canaries in the coalmine.
And it’s not just me saying it. The Dems agree, too:
Both [New Jersey and Virginia] races promise to examine what messages might work or fail ahead of next year’s midterm elections — and whether Democrats can bank on enthusiasm centered on opposition to Trump.
“I think we’re going to learn whether or not Democrats have the energy that they did in 2017. We saw big victories in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017, and that portended very big victories in 2018,” said New Jersey Democratic strategist Dan Bryan.
The races will also test whether other Republicans can replicate, and build on, Trump’s gains last year, when he improved on his 2020 margins in every state. [emphasis added]
But something VERY curious is going on in New Jersey and Virginia. Let’s begin in the Northeast:
Even though New Jersey has been a far more Democratic-leaning state than Virginia, some Republicans are feeling more confident about their chances in the Garden State.
“Republicans are probably more optimistic in New Jersey than they are in Virginia,” said [New Jersey GOP strategist Mike] DuHaime, adding that it’s the party’s “best shot since 2009,” when Chris Christie won his first gubernatorial race.
That’s in part because New Jersey had one of the largest swings toward Trump in 2024, and Republicans believe voters are eager for change after Murphy’s two terms. And they believe the GOP has a battle-tested candidate in Ciattarelli.
A former state assemblyman, Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by 3 points in a surprisingly close race four years ago, and this time the campaign is seeing a boost in resources. While the candidates have not filed fundraising reports since the June primary, both Ciattarelli and Sherrill have each received more than $5 million in public matching funds, suggesting that they are raising similar amounts of money.
The latest N.J. opinion polls already have it a single-digit race. With all the Democrats’ institutional advantages, that’s surprisingly little ground for the GOP to make up — especially when you consider the fact that past N.J. opinion polls have dramatically overestimated Democratic support.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, the race is even tighter:
Three recent polls seem to indicate that over the past six weeks, the race for Virginia Governor has tightened.
A Virginia Commonwealth University poll showed Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by 12 points in July.
An Aug.19 poll from Roanoke College then showed Earle-Sears down by seven points.
And this week, the Republican polling firm co/efficient showed Earle-Sears down by five points. [emphasis added]
Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears’ rise in the polls has coincided with an escalation of nasty racial epithets. Earle-Sears, who is black, is being attacked by angry white liberals:
🚨 BREAKING: An old, white, elderly liberal has been spotted holding a sign in protest of Republican Virginia governor candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, a black woman…
It reads: “Hey Winsome – if trans can’t share your bathroom, then BLACKS can’t share my WATER FOUNTAIN.”
Omg. pic.twitter.com/qk01iPhk2e
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 21, 2025
According to news reports, “The sign was held by a Democratic volunteer who, according to 7News, has been canvassing for Democrats for years.”
But the upside is, it’s earned Earle-Sears a $500,000 donation from Robert Johnson, the billionaire cofounder of Black Entertainment Television (BET):
Johnson, in a statement provided to POLITICO, said he was “so appalled by that racist diatribe … that I choose to show the voters of Virginia how Black Brothers stand up to defend and support their Black Sisters.” Johnson, who also founded RLJ Companies, was part of Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s fundraising network and backed Hillary Clinton for president in 2016 before shifting away from the party. [emphasis added]
All three Virginia statewide candidates have a chance to do what hasn’t been done since 1997: sweep the top three spots in back-to-back statewide elections.
(Full disclosure: Virginia’s attorney general candidate, Jason Miyares, was a college buddy of mine. When he was a lowly, pimple-faced freshman at JMU, I put him on our college radio station and giggled like a loon while he lambasted animal-rights weirdos. If you’d like to support this lifelong conservative, I encourage you to donate.)
Here’s how to decipher the results:
If the Democrats win Virginia and New Jersey by double digits, the GOP will get obliterated in the midterms and 100% lose the House. I’m talking another 40-seat swing, à la 2018. (Yeesh. Not good.)
If the Democrats win Virginia and New Jersey by single digits, the GOP will still lose the midterms — and almost certainly the House — but there’s a chance the losses will be minimal. Instead of a 40-seat swing, it’ll be in the low teens. (Not great, but would put us in striking distance of recapturing everything in 2028.)
If the GOP wins either Virginia or New Jersey, it will likely mean that the national realignment is still ongoing, and the Republicans are still on the upswing. That, coupled with the Democrats’ disastrous brand identity, would give the GOP a solid 50%-50% shot at winning the midterms and keeping the House.
And if the GOP wins BOTH Virginia and New Jersey?
Then the Republicans will win the midterms, grow its majority in the House, and Donald Trump will go down in history as the man who drove a stake in the heart of the Democratic Party.
The stage is set. Even CNN agrees:
Re: party registration, the Dem brand has about the same appeal with the American voter right now as the Cracker Barrel rebrand does with the American consumer. Bad, Bad, Bad.
GOP is in its best position in the 4 key swing states with party reg (AZ, NV, NC & PA) in 20+ years. pic.twitter.com/ZWmtnkupuV
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 26, 2025
Two canaries are in the coalmine. And in just 63 days, we’ll have our answer.
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