Back in January, Marco Rubio said something that I was quite thankful to hear come out of his mouth. We’d just captured and arrested Nicolás Maduro, and suddenly, everyone was an expert on Venezuela. I saw people on the cable news channels, on social media, and, sadly, even here across conservative media say some really dumb or untrue things. Rubio called it “clown hour.”
These are people that have focused their entire career on the Middle East or some other part of the world because that’s where all the action was. Very few of them know anything about Venezuela or the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela looks nothing like Libya, it looks nothing like Iraq, it looks nothing like Afghanistan, it looks nothing the Middle East, other than the Iranian agents that are running through there plotting against America.
These are Western countries with long traditions… at a cultural level and ties to the United States. So, it’s nothing like that. So, I think people need to stop ascribing apples and oranges — they’re the apples of the Middle East to the oranges of the Western Hemisphere.
He’s right. There are very few trustworthy geopolitical experts who know the Western Hemisphere or who know modern day Latin America. On Monday, in the wake of what’s happening in Iran, there are a lot of headlines out there that say “so and so says Cuba’s next” as if it’s some sort of new declaration, but, of course, we’ve known this for a while.
First, this wasn’t exactly a secret to those of us who were paying attention and who were talking last year about how, without Venezuelan oil and other perks, the country was not sustainable. Second, Donald Trump has said it numerous times, so it’s not a big mystery — on Friday, he actually said we’re heading toward a “friendly takeover” and said Rubio is talking to them. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said something similar over the weekend
But that aside, all you have to do is look at the Cuban regime itself and recognize historic patterns. It’s scrambling like it understands the ground game is already underway.
Exhibit A: The Speedboat Situation
First, you have the whole speedboat controversy. If you’ll recall, last Wednesday, February 25, the Cuban regime claimed its border guard got into a shootout with 10 individuals who were on a speedboat coming in from Florida. They say they killed four and injured six of the men, and they claim they found assault rifles, handguns, Molotov cocktails, bulletproof vests, and camo gear on board the vessel. They described it as “armed terrorist infiltration” and claimed all involved had a history of terroristic activity.
Rubio said that evening that we don’t buy anything they claim until we have actual proof. Florida’s attorney general, James Uthmeier, along with the United States Coast Guard and the Department of Homeland Security, has opened investigations.
By Friday, we had a bit more info. A family in Florida reported that the boat registration matched their own vessel, which had been stolen by an employee of their business, but they said it’s really just a fishing boat, and there’s no way it could have made it all the way to Cuba, much less carrying 10 men and all that gear. One of the guys on the list put out by the Cuban regime claimed he hasn’t left the United States and doesn’t understand why his name would even be on the list.
We have since confirmed that two U.S. citizens were aboard this boat. One was injured/detained by Cuban authorities, while the other was killed. The family of the one who was murdered claims he wanted to take out the communist regime but that he had no history of “terroristic” activity and worked as a truck driver for 20 years and was about to become a grandfather. They’re begging for the regime to return his body, but so far, there has been no response.
The regime now conveniently claims there were actually two boats involved, and on Friday, it came out with a little bit of show-and-tell, allowing the Associated Press to take pictures of the weapons and gear it says were on board. It claims the second boat failed, so the men had to abandon it and load everything onto the first one, but it can’t quite come up with a good story as to where that second boat is now. The regime says that they found “a dozen high-powered weapons, including one with a scope; a big cooler filled with more than 12,800 pieces of ammunition; 11 pistols; heavy-duty boots, helmets with cameras; and camouflage backpacks,” among other things.
Top officials with Cuba’s Ministry of the Interior unveiled for the first time late Friday the items they said were aboard a Florida-flagged speedboat that opened fire against troops. https://t.co/E5M4GToDzH pic.twitter.com/7ajD2nxMQd
— WFLA NEWS (@WFLA) February 28, 2026
It also says that the six men who were injured will face terrorism charges and up to 30 years in prison. And about the guy whose name was on the list, but he wasn’t actually there? The regime claims it made a mistake, but that we should all know that guy still has a bad history. He maintains he has nothing to do with it, and he is now afraid for the lives of his relatives who live in Cuba.
Ironically, it happened exactly 30 years after the infamous Brothers to the Rescue murders — when the Cubans shot down two unarmed Cessna planes operated by a Miami-based humanitarian group, killing four. They were flying in international airspace.
So, basically, we still have no idea what happened. The regime is screaming terrorism and mercenaries, yet it won’t produce actual evidence. Cuban exiles are saying that if the story is even true, the men were merely activists. The U.S. is still demanding proof, but so far the only thing Cuba has proven is that it’s probably trying to flex on threats from Donald Trump and Rubio and make the U.S. look bad.
Exhibit B: Miguel Díaz-Canel Calls for Economic Reform
This one, I think, is the juiciest.
“I would say this, that the people of Cuba are suffering today. They’ve been suffering for a long time. They’re suffering now, perhaps more than at any time in recent memory, perhaps in the history since 1959,” Rubio said last week. “This is the worst economic climate that Cuba has faced, and it is the authorities there in that government who are responsible for that.”
He went on to explain how Cuba has never really had an economy. For years it existed on subsidies from the Soviet Union. When it collapsed, Hugo Chávez stepped in. Eventually, Nicolás Maduro stepped in with oil, much of which the Cuban regime sold before it ever even made it to the island, but even that slowed down after Maduro ran the Venezuelan oil industry into the ground. While Cuba is collapsing, it’s not a new thing — it’s been happening for years. Trump just sped it up a bit.
On Monday, the country’s “president,” Miguel Díaz-Canel, called for change. “We must focus, immediately, on implementing the urgent, most necessary transformations that must be made to the economic and social model,” he told the Council of Ministers at its monthly meeting.
What kind of change you ask? Some of it involves — get this — less micromanagement and more operational freedom for business, more municipal autonomy, reducing the state apparatus, boosting national food production, and increasing renewable energy. He also spoke of inviting foreign investment and appealing to Cubans living abroad. Bold vision, comrades.
Does this mean the commies suddenly realize that communism isn’t the way? Probably not. This is just what Havana does when its global sugar daddies stop providing cash and oil. It’s meant to pacify the people — the people who were out in the streets on Saturday, upon seeing what was happening in Iran, with posters that read “We trust Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Mike Hammer,” might I add — and maybe try to buy some time with Trump. But if we’ve learned anything from Venezuela and Iran, there’s no such thing. Trump strikes when he’s ready to strike, and he doesn’t give you long to make a deal. I imagine Díaz-Canel and a few others don’t get a lot of sleep, especially on Friday nights when Trump flies down to Mar-a-lago. Who knows if that “friendly takeover” could end up being not so friendly…
Exhibit C: The Response to Iran
Few have mourned the death Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week as hard as the Cuban regime. Except maybe the U.S. fake news and Marjorie Taylor Greene, but I digress. Of course, Cuba and Iran have maintained diplomatic, economic, and ideological — meaning anti-U.S. — ties since 1979.
Díaz-Canel took to X to extend his “heartfelt condolences” to the family and colleagues of Khamenei and said that “In Cuba, he will be remembered as a distinguished statesman and leader of his people, who contributed to the development of friendly relations between Cuba and Iran.”
He also condemned the actions of the United States and Israel, saying they “constitute a flagrant violation of International Law and the UN Charter.”
“They ruin for the second time the efforts of diplomacy regarding the nuclear issue, and endanger regional and international peace and security. The effects already being recorded in that turbulent region bear witness to this,” he continued. “The international community must act immediately to stop this aggression and escalation, due to its unpredictable consequences.” Cuba’s Foreign Ministry said something similar.
What’s funny is that if you look at the responses, it’s all Cubans sharing “you’re next” gifs and memes. And as I mentioned in the Morning Briefing on Monday, Cubans in the U.S. were celebrating the fall of the Iranian regime with a lot of enthusiasm and hope that Cuba is next.
🚨Miami demands Freedom for Cuba! 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇺 pic.twitter.com/qjp5C2FpTB
— Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (@RepCarlos) March 1, 2026
What’s even funnier is that the international community he’s appealing to isn’t exactly listening.
The fact is that Cuba’s allies are dropping like flies, and the regime is more isolated than ever. It lost Khamenei and Maduro in less than two months, and it’s even lost Mexico’s narco-president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who was picking up Venezuela’s slack in the oil department. China sends strong words but no action, and Russia was trying to send some oil, but the tanker appears to have diverted from its course and headed in another direction.
When I see these social media posts from the regime, I see desperate men who sleep with one eye open, knowing that they are, indeed, next. These are desperate cries for help that isn’t coming.
So, there you have it: internal panic, external panic, and what’s looking more and more like a move from the old propaganda playbook. No “clown hour” required. No “experts” needed. Just look directly to the dying regime, and they’ll show their hand every time.
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