Russia began this phase of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
I say “this phase” rather than “the war” because the war had actually begun 8 years earlier, under the Obama administration, when Russia seized about 20% of the country, including the eastern oblasts and Crimea. The offensive in 2022 and the grinding hot war since then have added essentially no territory to what the Russians had already conquered in the decade before.
Russia occupies about 20% of what was Ukraine in 2014, but its gains, at enormous cost to the country, have amounted to a rounding error of less than 1% more of that country, and what little territory they now occupy is a dangerous wasteland that has cost the Russians almost all their useful armor, hundreds of billions of dollars, and its access to Western technology. Russia is now dependent on China and Iran to sustain its military capacity, and its energy infrastructure is getting hammered.
A 1,200-page classified document called Operation Plan Germany contains a secret plan for Germany’s preparation for war with Russia https://t.co/YujUz1ZmjZ
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) November 27, 2025
That’s why I have been skeptical of the claims that Russia is much of a military threat to Western Europe, at least when it comes to direct military conflict. Russia has a lot of capacity and the will to engage in so-called “gray zone” warfare against Europe and the United States, but the idea that tanks would roll into NATO countries seems quite absurd. Doing so would risk the country losing most of its military capacity and gain the Russians nothing. Any territory it took would be contested for the indefinite future, and that future would be very short.
Yet, if the reporting in the Wall Street Journal is correct, the Germans are worried that Russia could be ready and willing to go to war before the end of the decade.
BERLIN—A dozen senior German officers convened at a triangle-shaped military compound in Berlin about 2½ years ago to work on a secret plan for a war with Russia.
Now they’re racing to implement it.
Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine ended decades of stability in Europe. Since then, the region has embarked on its fastest military buildup since the end of World War II. But the outcome of a future war won’t depend only on the number of troops and weapons in the field.
It will also hinge on the success of the monumental logistical operation at the heart of Operation Plan Germany, the 1,200 page-long classified document drafted behind the nondescript walls of the Julius Leber Barracks.
The blueprint details how as many as 800,000 German, U.S. and other NATO troops would be ferried eastward toward the front line. It maps the ports, rivers, railways and roads they would travel, and how they would be supplied and protected on the way.
“Look at the map,” said Tim Stuchtey, head of the nonpartisan Brandenburg Institute for Society and Security. With the Alps forming a natural barrier, North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops would have to cross Germany in case of a clash with Russia, he added, “regardless of where it might start.”
At a higher level, the plan is the clearest manifestation to date of what its authors call an “all-of-society” approach to war. This blurring of the line between the civilian and military realms marks a return to a Cold-War mindset, but updated to account for new threats and hurdles—from Germany’s decrepit infrastructure to inadequate legislation and a smaller military—that didn’t exist at the time.
German officials have said they expect Russia will be ready and willing to attack NATO in 2029. But a string of spying incidents, sabotage attacks and airspace intrusion in Europe, many of them attributed to Moscow by Western intelligence, suggest it could be preparing to pounce sooner.
Analysts also think that a possible armistice in Ukraine, which the U.S. is pushing for this week, could free up time and resources for Russia to prepare a move against NATO members in Europe.
It is true that NATO countries, with the exception of Poland, are grossly unprepared for sustained armed conflict. They have been hiding behind the skirts of the United States for so long that they have allowed their militaries to atrophy. France could likely add substantially to American and Polish arms, because, despite its reputation, it is much more pugilistic than people realize.
But, for the most part, our NATO allies are mostly useful for their bases and infrastructure. The Swedes might be able to fight in the air and provide special forces, but countries like Germany would be bit players in any war in the near and medium-term future. Only the United States has the economic and military power to destroy Russia’s military, and it could do so quite handily.
Russia knows this. The chances that it will attack NATO countries any time soon are near zero. Putin has his hands full as it is. He is quite willing to harass the West, but take territory? Nyet.
Anyone that’s worked with the Bundeswehr in the past 15 years is laughing right now. It’s a fundamentally unserious force that’s criminally undersupplied and undertrained. https://t.co/L0ZFZCAa3q pic.twitter.com/A4ShgkczYJ
— Dissident Soaps (@DissidentSoaps) May 28, 2025
So why is Germany, and for that matter other NATO countries, preparing for war? Simple: Trump has made clear that they must pull their weight in the NATO alliance and that our security umbrella is less certain because we expect to be otherwise engaged and are preparing to shift our focus from Europe to Asia.
Gen. Fabien Mandon urged local officials to prepare citizens that they may need “to accept suffering in order to protect who we are.”
“We have all the knowledge, all the economic and demographic strength to deter the Moscow regime,” Mandon said. pic.twitter.com/ESjVZNtKsU
— onetallorder (@onetallorfour) November 21, 2025
Obama signaled the shift over a decade ago with his “pivot to Asia,” but somehow that pivot never happened. And it didn’t because European countries reneged on their promises to beef up their defenses, and Obama blinked. Trump doesn’t blink, and Europe knows that unless they get in the game, their unassailable position today turns into vulnerability tomorrow. Not 2029, perhaps, but as of today, their militaries are paper tigers, and spinning up the war machine takes a long time.
Germany is reportedly planning to expand its SAM fleet to its largest size since the Cold War, by placing a massive new order of 50 IRIS-T SLM systems, per the German defense outlet CPM Verlag.
The order would significantly boost Germany’s medium range air defense force. pic.twitter.com/dNomkqeZIY
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 30, 2025
How weak are our NATO partners today? When France and Great Britain proposed a 10,000-man peacekeeping force for Ukraine, should a cease-fire be achieved, they couldn’t scrape up the manpower. They don’t have the troops, the equipment, the ammunition, or the logistics to carry it off.
Hence the buildup. Deterrence has to be credible, and if the United States actually does pivot to Asia, as it must, fortress Europe’s walls crumble.
Unfortunately, it takes a sense of crisis to change policies to any great degree, especially when sacrifices are required. Hence the war talk. Without an imminent threat to counter, it’s impossible to do what is necessary to prevent the real crisis.
Americans should be happy that Europeans are getting more serious about their defenses, even if they are a long way off from self-sufficiency. Europe need not be self-sufficient to become more useful to the defense of the West. A sufficiently strong deterrent force and a demonstration of will could go a long way toward making Russia rethink any plans to mess with Europe over the next few decades.
But the 2029 date for Russia being ready to invade? That’s absurd on its face. Russia can’t gain territory in Ukraine. It can cause damage and drain Western resources, but it’s deploying T-62s, can’t fly aircraft far into the country, and its troops are so underequipped and ill-trained that combined arms warfare is out of the question for them.
All this talk about imminent war is a psyop aimed at the populace of the European countries. The goal is to convince them that they need stronger militaries, which they do. Americans are willing to pay to be the world’s hyperpower; Europeans want their 6-week vacations and to retire at 62.
All this is about deterrence, and that is a good thing. The United States is stretched and has to deter China while also patrolling elsewhere. European weakness complicates things and is a drain on resources. We need more ships, and the logistics for war in Asia are much different than those for Europe.
I’m glad to see Europe stepping up. But really, Russia is not about to invade a NATO country.
It’s the holiday season, which means HotAir VIP’s Black Friday sale is back!
Now through Monday evening, 11:59 PM ET, receive 60% OFF an annual VIP, VIP Gold, or VIP Platinum membership with promo code FIGHT.
But wait, there’s more…
Right now, if you join HotAir VIP Platinum, you will be entered for a chance to win one of five Lifetime Platinum memberships. That’s right – five lucky winners will receive VIP Platinum access FOR LIFE.
A VIP Platinum membership includes:
- Fully ad-free web browsing, newsletters, and the THM News mobile app
- Access to exclusive columns, reporting, and videos/podcasts from your favorite conservatives
- VIP benefits across the entire Townhall Media network using SINGLE SIGN ON — HotAir, Townhall, PJ Media, RedState, Twitchy, and Bearing Arms ($294 Value)
- Interact with your favorite Townhall Media authors through VIP Gold live chats
- Access to the Townhall Media PLATINUM site, including PATRIOT AI — the entire Townhall Media network at your fingertips in one spot
- Unlimited access to TownhallTV — Stream the biggest conservative movies, documentaries, and TV shows
- A $25 welcome gift card to the Townhall Media Store and an Unlimited lifetime 20% discount to the Townhall Media Store
- Directly contact your favorite authors through our private messaging system
- Directly support HotAir’s conservative journalism, telling the truth the Left wants silenced
Don’t miss out on our MASSIVE holiday sale or the chance to win a Lifetime Platinum membership! Join our team of Patriots today and help us fight, fight, fight for the truth.
