On the heels of a poll that said socialist Democrat Zohran Mamdani could handily defeat his rivals in Tuesday’s New York City mayoral election, an election eve poll said Mamdani is running neck and neck with former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
The poll from AtlasIntel showed Mamdani with 43.9 percent support, with Cuomo on his heels at 39.4 percent support. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who has remained in the race despite calls to drop out so that Mamdani had only Cuomo as an opponent, was at 15.5 percent support.
The poll noted that if it was a two-man race, Cuomo would have the support of 49.7 percent of respondents against 44.1 percent for Mamdani.
📊FINAL ATLAS POLL
2025 NYC Mayoral Election
Mamdani (D) leads with 43.9% of the vote (+3.3 since Oct. 30), while Cuomo (I) trails close behind at 39.4% (+5.4 since Oct. 30). With Sliwa (R) dropping 8.6pp, the gap between Mamdani and Cuomo decreased to 4.5pp. pic.twitter.com/cP1FZqpoAH
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2025
The poll sampled responses from 2,404 respondents from Oct. 31 through Nov. 2. The poll’s margin of error was +/- 2 percentage points.
Although Cuomo left office in 2021 under a cloud due to allegations of sexual harassment, the new poll said he vastly outperformed Mamdani among women, 45.1 percent support to 37.4 percent support. Men, however, broke for Mamdani, 50.9 percent to 33 percent.
The poll showed a study in contrasts when it came to age. Among voters 18-29, Mamdani had 62.2 percent support against Cuomo’s 23.1 percent support. Among voters 65 and over, Cuomo led Mamdani 54.3 percent to 29 percent.
“It’s about saving the city.”@andrewcuomo makes the case for Republicans to vote for him to prevent Zohran Mamdani from winning. pic.twitter.com/iJqIxIfk71
— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) November 4, 2025
Will this race end up being close?
As noted by RealClearPolling, the Atlas poll followed one by Emerson and The Hill that gave Mamdani a 25-point lead. The poll had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
After heavy turnout in early voting, projections are that the total turnout in the contest could top 2 million voters for the first time since 1969, according to the New York Post.
Here is Muslim Communist Mamdani’s positions….. pic.twitter.com/F59ORoievK
— Alexander Duncan (@AlexDuncanTX) July 2, 2025
The race’s dynamics have shifted in recent weeks, with calls for Sliwa to drop out as a strategic move to stop Mamdani.
Lee Miringhoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said that appeared to have an impact as the new AtlasIntel poll showed Sliwa’s support down from 24 percent in a previous AtlasIntel poll.
Stephen Graves, an analyst with Gotham Polling, said that despite the waves of younger voters who turned out for Mamdani in early voting, older voters are more likely to show up on Election Day, which could help Cuomo.
92-year-old Holocaust survivor votes for first time ever — to back Cuomo to stop Mamdani https://t.co/CuH5lHaK8j pic.twitter.com/AWrpYqq45K
— New York Post (@nypost) November 2, 2025
“As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” he said.
“That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats,” he explained.
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