Pour one out for Rep. Dan Crenshaw, who’ll be sitting at least the rest of this election cycle out.
Crenshaw, the only Texas House Republican that President Donald Trump declined to endorse in Tuesday’s primaries, lost bigly to state Rep. Steve Toth for the state’s Second Congressional District.
With 94.8 percent of the vote counted as of Wednesday morning, Toth had 55.8 percent of the vote compared to 40.6 percent for Crenshaw.
Not only was this over 15 points clear of the incumbent, but nearly 6 points clear of the majority required to clear a May 26 runoff.
However, experts had called the race for Toth early in the night — which is surprising, considering that the race was supposed to be close:
I’ve seen enough: Steve Toth (R) defeats Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) in the #TX02 GOP primary.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 4, 2026
Perhaps the rout was due to the fact that, as the Texas Tribune noted, Toth had “gathered the support of Sen. Ted Cruz and the Trump-aligned conservative group Turning Point Action,” among others.
The Freedom Caucus Fund is proud to have supported @SteveTothTX in his successful race to retire RINO anti-Trump Congressman Dan Crenshaw! pic.twitter.com/9wEYJCGMwD
— Freedom Caucus Fund (@FreedomCFund) March 4, 2026
Perhaps it’s also the fact that his district was redrawn ahead of the election, as The Wall Street Journal noted. This wouldn’t, on its own, explain the fact that one of the biggest GOP prospects since Trump was first elected president got defeated in his own primary by double digits, however.
Perhaps it’s also the fact that Crenshaw has comported himself in a way that he’s gotten (whether you believe it’s fairly or unfairly) the moniker “Eyepatch McCain,” a reference to the fact he lost his eye in combat and his habit of supporting a John McCain-style watered-down RINO quasi-conservatism:
Everyone here is happy about eyepatch McCain losing like a dog tonight, I can tell you that. pic.twitter.com/GSmaEKBo8B
— Matthew J. Peterson (@docMJP) March 4, 2026
This kind of enmity is something that takes a while for a one-time rising star in the GOP to earn, and earn it he did. While he was once seen as arguably the brightest prospect in the class of 2018 on the GOP side, he tested the patience of his own party too often.
In particular, Crenshaw’s habit of picking fights with the powerful, conservative House Freedom Caucus and President Donald Trump did not endear him to the kind of people who would normally support a former Navy SEAL running in a deep-red district outside of Houston. Neither did being on the wrong side of too many votes.
Or, perhaps it’s the fact that, like too many other politicians in Congress, Crenshaw was accused of getting rich off of his position in the House of Representatives. While not quite Pelosi-level stuff, his increase in net worth is closer to Nancy’s arc than one would generally feel comfortable with.
Unlike many of the people who lost or were forced into a runoff after Tuesday’s vote (looking at you, Jasmine Crockett and Al Green), Crenshaw’s career isn’t necessarily done.
But then, he’s going to have to do a heck of a lot of image rehab to revive his chances. Becoming the first incumbent Republican to lose in the primary process this cycle shows just how far Crenshaw has fallen in a few short years.
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