131,793. That’s how many of the 6 million-plus of Virginia’s registered voters cast a ballot on Tuesday for state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for lieutenant governor, and she won.
To be fair, only about 34% of Virginia’s registered voters identify as Democrat, so it’s not as stark a number. OK, actually, it still is. That’s still only 6.3% of the 2.08 million that make up that 34%. On the other hand, it’s a primary.
“Democracy is government by those who show up” is axiomatic, and it certainly played out in this six-way race for the Democrat lieutenant governor nomination. Is it more troubling for Democrats that only 8% of all registered voters turned out for a Democratic primary or that the top three candidates for lieutenant governor couldn’t generate more than 27% support from those who did vote (Hashmi got 27.4%; former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, 26.6%; and state Sen. Aaron Rouse, 26.1%)?
Moreover, is this an opportunity for the GOP’s lieutenant governor nominee, John Reid, to reach out to the business-owning Virginians who generally vote for the Democrat. Reid told The Daily Signal that Hashmi was out protesting President Donald Trump rather than participating in the recent 250th anniversary of Patrick Henry’s “Give Me Liberty” address and that she was one of five sponsors of the Senate’s version of the proposed constitutional amendment that would enshrine a woman’s ability to abort her baby right up until the moment of birth.
There is a saying that boxing promoters use: “Matchups Make Fights.” It means that just because someone is an unknown, if he is a stronger boxer where the other is vulnerable, upsets are much more likely.
This could be bad news for the Democrats because Reid, through his career as a conservative commentator, has always been viewed as fair and open-minded. While his “lifestyle” (he is a gay man) might keep some socially conservative Republicans from voting for him, the less-radical, business-oriented Democrats might support him over Hashmi.
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Meanwhile, the race for the nomination for the Democrat candidate for attorney general to face incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares was equally close, with Del. Jay Jones edging Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor 50.9% to 49.05%. The endorsements of former Govs. Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam, along with late attack ads highlighting Taylor for having received campaign contributions from Dominion Energy, pushed Jones over the top in an equally light turnout vote.
Now, the formula for the Democrats will have to be getting those turnout numbers up for the general election. Most polling organizations like Christopher Newport University and Roanoke College have been “oversampling” Democrat voters because of the perceived enthusiasm for the “anti-Trump” vote come the general election.
But the primary turnout doesn’t back that up, and if better jobs numbers continue each month in Virginia and an economy that has been growing each quarter continues to grow, getting those turnout numbers up will be even more difficult.
