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President Trump recently fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner overseeing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, after disappointing July employment numbers showed the unemployment rate rising and only 73,000 jobs added. The bureau also revised previous months’ data downward, eliminating over 250,000 jobs that had been credited to Trump’s economy.
Trump characterized the numbers as “rigged” and “totally political,” claiming the data was manipulated against him. However, he stated that McEntarfer’s firing was primarily due to the bureau’s performance under President Biden, particularly an 818,000 job overestimate that was corrected in August 2024 after the agency had reported steady job growth from spring 2023 through early 2024.
Experts from across the political spectrum have pushed back against Trump’s allegations of data manipulation. William Beach, who served as the bureau’s commissioner during Trump’s first administration, called the president’s complaints “totally groundless.” Heidi Shierholz, former Labor Department chief economist under Obama, criticized Trump for undermining public trust in previously accepted data and noted that the jobs numbers are produced by hundreds of expert economists and statisticians following established methodologies.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects employment data through two main surveys: the Current Employment Statistics survey, which queries about 121,000 businesses monthly, and the Current Population Survey, operated by the Census Bureau for BLS, which surveys 60,000 households.
Both surveys face significant challenges with declining response rates. The Current Population Survey’s response rate has dropped from 85% a decade ago to less than 70% recently, while the Current Employment Statistics response rate has fallen from above 60% pre-pandemic to approximately 42-43% currently.
Experts acknowledge legitimate concerns about data quality issues stemming from these declining response rates and the need for subsequent revisions as businesses submit late responses. Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan professor and former Labor Department chief economist, attributed some problems to budget constraints that haven’t kept pace with inflation and outdated data collection methods.
Analysts worry that Trump’s public criticism could further compromise data integrity by making survey respondents more reluctant to participate. They also note that any coordinated manipulation would require involvement from dozens or hundreds of bureau employees among the approximately 2,000 staff members.
Interestingly, some experts suggest the current employment trends actually support Trump’s immigration enforcement goals, as the data appears consistent with expectations for significant reductions in illegal immigration, which the administration claims to be achieving through tougher policies.
Read more: Trump creates credibility crisis for Labor Department’s monthly jobs report
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