JOHANNESBURG, South Africa — In the sweepstakes for the country whose relationship with the United States has been most disrupted since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, Ukraine, Canada and Panama may be the early front-runners.
But don’t sleep on South Africa.
In a twist few predicted, Pretoria’s relations with the new Trump administration have plummeted in the past seven weeks, despite — or perhaps because of — the fact that several close advisers to the new American president have roots or deep ties to South Africa, including billionaire adviser and South African native Elon Musk.
The weekend expulsion of Pretoria’s ambassador to Washington was just the latest and most dramatic sign of soured relations, coming at a time when South African President Cyril Ramaphosa had been anxiously seeking ways to reestablish a bond with the White House.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool persona non grata after the envoy appeared to link both President Trump and the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement to “White supremacist” movements. Mr. Rasool — who was on his second Washington tour, having served as ambassador during the Obama administration — was ordered to leave the United States by Friday, after Mr. Rubio accused him of “race-baiting” and said he was “no longer welcome in our great country.”
Mr. Rasool said in a recent online seminar hosted by a South African think tank that the MAGA movement was partially in response to worries about demographic change and a future when White Americans would no longer be the majority.
Mr. Ramaphosa played down the rift, describing it as “regrettable” and insisting that discussions be maintained in “diplomatic language,” a public criticism of Mr. Rasool’s comments. He reiterated the need to rebuild ties with Washington, saying this was a priority for his government.
Bilateral diplomatic relations date from 1799 when John Adams’ administration opened a consulate in Cape Town. This is the first time a head of mission has been expelled.
Many here say relations between Pretoria and Washington have dropped to their lowest point since anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela ushered in the first democratic government in 1994, with several factors foreign and domestic seemingly conspiring to strain bilateral ties to near breaking point.
South Africa, as this year’s head of the Group of 20 developed and developing nations, laid out an agenda almost tailored to clash with Mr. Trump’s “America first policies” and his Make America Great Again political base, a program focused on fighting climate change, addressing the gap between richer and poorer countries, and celebrating “equality” and “sustainability.”
Mr. Rubio and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Bessent pointedly skipped summits of G-20 ministers hosted by South Africa
The Ramaphosa government has also taken a leading role in the international legal campaign against Israel, America’s key ally in the Middle East, over its military campaign against the Palestinian Hamas militant group. In the final days of the Biden administration, South Africa was heading the charge for an official finding of genocide against the Israeli government over its actions in Gaza.
Closer to home, a new South African law that allows the government to take land without payment in specific instances where it is not being used — or where it would be in the “public interest” if it is redistributed — has attracted Mr. Trump’s particular ire. While there is no mention of race or skin color in the statute, critics in both South Africa and the U.S. say the law in practice will mean taking land owned by mostly minority white landowners to be given to Black citizens.
After Mr. Ramaphosa’s long-ruling African National Congress was forced into a coalition government after last spring’s elections, the new unity government was expected to drop the proposal.
Instead, Mr. Ramaphosa has signed it into law, drawing condemnation from Mr. Trump who framed it as a means of taking land from white farmers who grow the majority of the country’s food.
In a Feb. 7 executive order, Mr. Trump decreed that the U.S. would halt all aid to the country until the law was scrapped. Pretoria, he said, was discriminating against the white minority, and South Africans targeted under the new law would henceforth enjoy easier access to residency in America.
“As long as South Africa continues to support bad actors on the world stage and allows violent attacks on innocent disfavored minority farmers, the United States will stop aid and assistance to the country,” the White House said in a summary of the order.
Much of the American aid money was directed at fighting climate change and financing the provision of drugs to those infected with HIV.
Thus far, no land has been taken except where owners have been willing to sell at market rates. World Bank figures show that close to 70% of South Africans are now urban and rely on supermarkets for their groceries. Corn, wheat and livestock are produced on vast estates — principally controlled by white farmers — with the economy of scale keeping prices within reach of the Black majority, many of whom live in crowded shacks around the cities.
Business at stake
The risks of a break with Washington are high for South Africa, the continent’s biggest economy and traditionally a political and diplomatic leader as well.
The United States is South Africa’s second-largest export market, just behind China, with two-way trade topping $20 billion a year. McDonald’s and KFC have outlets across the country — Mr. Ramaphosa himself was a major McDonald’s franchise owner in South Africa before becoming president — and a key chain of stores is owned by American retail giant Walmart.
Trade is made easier by the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), put in place by President George W. Bush and allowing duty-free access to the U.S. by African countries for a wide list of goods. It is due to expire in September and there are fears here that Pretoria may find itself dropped from the treaty.
Friction in U.S.-South African relations pre-dates Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. The ANC enjoys a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and repeatedly abstained on U.N. motions condemning the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, much to the frustration of the Biden administration.
Still, there is no shortage of voices inside South Africa blaming the government for much of the deterioration in ties with Washington.
Emma Powell leads the team on foreign policy for the Democratic Alliance (DA), the nation’s second-biggest party after the ANC and now part of the power-sharing government. She has voiced concern over Pretoria’s global stance, having returned recently from the U.S. where she met members of both the Senate and Congress and the committees concerned with Africa.
She told The Washington Times there was a need to “ensure our policies are not in contravention of U.S. national security interests if we want to enjoy continued access to the AGOA treaty on trade. Instead, our bilateral actions should be geared towards economic growth and the creation of jobs in South Africa.”
Ms. Powell said her party favored a “nonaligned foreign policy and an end to fraternizing with the enemies of peace and democracy.”
Cultivating ties with Iran, she said, was an example of the South African government’s misplaced priorities, angering the U.S. to curry favor with “a theocratic dictatorship with which South Africa has annual trade of less than $16 million.”
For now, a charge d’affaires will head the embassy in Washington while Mr. Ramaphosa either appoints a new ambassador or pleads for a second chance, allowing Mr. Rasool to stay as envoy.
But with reserves of cash running low, his priority will be to steer his annual budget through a hostile parliament where other parties, including the DA, have blocked it over a proposed rise in sales tax. DA party leaders say the ANC still has not come to terms with the fact that, having lost its historic majority, it no longer sets the agenda.
