Looks like cheat’s back on the menu, boys!
After dragging out the will they/won’t they game for a couple of days, the Iranians finally agreed to return to Islamabad for another round of peace talks. Or at least that’s what Pakistan claims, the Associated Press reported less than an hour ago. Once again, the same negotiators will meet at the same table to discuss the same issues, and … do something different this time?
We’ll see – maybe:
Neither the U.S. nor Iran have publicly confirmed the timing of talks. Iranian state television has denied any official is already in Pakistan’s capital.
Pakistan-led mediators received confirmation that the top negotiators, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, will arrive in Islamabad early Wednesday, the officials told The Associated Press. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters.
A two-week ceasefire is due to expire.
Indeed, and that was hardly a signal achievement. The Iranians, led by Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi, agreed to allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz unmolested. The regime then claimed that the agreement was supposed to include Lebanon, which the US disputed, but Trump and Marco Rubio arranged a ceasefire there as well. The Iranians responded by firing at commercial traffic that attempted to use the Strait, at which point Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran until all negotiations conclude.
At least Donald Trump doesn’t have any illusions about Iran’s commitment to negotiations. As this news broke, Trump posted a warning on Truth Social:
Iran has Violated the Cease Fire numerous times!
Iran has violated it constantly. It’s more accurate, in fact, to say that Iran has never abided by the terms of the ceasefire at all and that it should have been considered dead from the start.
So why let the Iranians play out the string for two weeks? Trump would prefer a negotiated capitulation that allows the US to seize the highly enriched uranium and forces Iran to stop threatening traffic through the Strait. Trump needs to be seen as willing to negotiate for political purposes, both in the region and here at home, although the Gulf states attacked by Iran may not put a large store in talks with the IRGC any longer. If Iran refuses to negotiate, it makes escalation an easier sell, especially when Iran keeps firing at commercial traffic in international waters.
The most interesting part of Iran’s move today is that they returned while Trump keeps the blockade in place. The US Navy even seized another tanker linked to Iran’s black-market oil sales this morning:
The Pentagon on social media says U.S. forces “conducted a right-of-visit maritime interdiction” and boarded the M/T Tifani “without incident.” Ship-tracking data showed the Tifani in the Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Indonesia.
The announcement describes the boarding as happening overnight.
The statement adds that “international waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels.”
Will Iran show up after this blockade action? The Pakistanis think so, and there’s another reason to suspect that they’ll be at the table in the next few hours. That’s all they have left in the ceasefire the Iranians keep violating, and Trump is in no mood to extend it:
President Trump is unlikely to extend a cease-fire with Iran that is set to expire on Wednesday evening, according to a White House official. The deadline puts pressure on negotiators ahead of U.S-Iran talks that are expected to take place in Pakistan later this week.
The president told Bloomberg in an interview earlier Monday that it is “highly unlikely” he would extend the cease-fire.
This is the typical eleventh-hour scramble that Iran uses as leverage in talks. Thus far, that’s lost them two tankers, and next up may be their energy and transportation structure, although Trump might just choose to keep the blockade in place and let the regime starve. Trump has more time and more options than Ahmad Vahidi does, and everyone knows it.
Update: Trump just went on CNBC and warned that he will not extend the ceasefire without a full deal that meets his terms:
Trump:
In the end, there will be a great deal with Iran, we are in a strong position in the negotiations.” According to him, “There is not much time left for the ceasefire, and I do not want to extend it.” pic.twitter.com/CnehDvdYAA
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 21, 2026
We’ll see, but at the very least, the blockade won’t get loosened until Trump gets what he wants – the “nuclear dust.” After that, everything else is probably negotiable. That’s the key to both regional security and to Trump’s ability to claim a victory whose value exceeds the costs of the war.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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