Iran wants to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. Donald Trump just decided to raise the stakes by taking Iran’s entire export capacity hostage. Late this evening, Trump announced that US forces had destroyed all of the military facilities on Kharg Island, through which Iran exports 90% of more of its oil.
Trump said he spared Iran’s commercial export facilities on Kharg. For now. Nice oil business ya got there, Mojtaba …
Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Until now, we have turned a blind eye to Iran’s continued exports to China and India during the two-week conflict. The US and Israel did not want to touch off a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, for reasons which became obvious this week. However, Trump clearly decided that if Iran wants to disrupt oil shipping as leverage in the war, the US can play the same game.
When Trump says “every military target,” he wasn’t kidding around. The New York Times reports that the targets include missile and mine storage facilities as well as assets that exist to protect the oil facilities on Kharg:
The strikes on Kharg Island targeted all of the military infrastructure on the island, a military official said. U.S. Air Force bombers struck missile storage sites, as well as sites that housed Iranian mines, the official said. He said the United States did not target the economic infrastructure on the island.
Kharg Island is one of Iran’s most strategic and critical energy outposts, situated deep into the Persian Gulf’s north, about 20 miles off the mainland’s coast. About 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports go through Kharg. The island has huge oil storage facilities, and pipelines from the island are connected by sea to some of Iran’s largest oil and gas fields.
Kharg Island is home to three main energy infrastructure sites belonging to the Iranian oil ministry, including Falat Iran Oil Company, which produces 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is considered the largest of the country’s four main oil-producing refineries. The island also hosts Kharg Petrochemical company, as well as a major facility for storing and shipping oil and liquified natural gas. It plays a major role in Iran’s economy and oil revenues. Any disruption to the island’s infrastructure would also affect the global energy market.
That makes Kharg a very valuable resource for Iran, which the regime has no means to protect. Trump’s threat answers Iran’s escalation on shipping with the threat to eliminate, in one strike, the only export Iran has left that still produces hard currency. A strike on Kharg’s commercial facilities would not just put an end to Iran’s only reliable income stream, but it could keep Iran from selling oil at all for years. Trump has not hit the facility thus far because of its importance to the global economy, but he’s clearly not afraid to cripple Iran for the long term if it continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Nor is destruction Trump’s only option. This morning, the Pentagon announced that it had ordered an expeditionary force of 2500 Marines, along with amphibious-support warships from Japan, to the Strait of Hormuz:
The Pentagon is moving additional Marines and warships to the Middle East as Iran steps up its attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, according to three U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has approved a request from U.S. Central Command, responsible for American forces in the Middle East, for an element of an amphibious ready group and attached Marine expeditionary unit, typically consisting of several warships and 5,000 Marines and sailors, the officials said.
The Japan-based USS Tripoli and its attached Marines are now headed for the Middle East, two of the officials said. Marines are already in the Middle East supporting the Iran operation, the officials said.
As I wrote then, the likely target for an amphibious insertion of a ground force of that size would have been Kharg Island, where the population is somewhere below 9,000 and the garrison likely much smaller. Seizing Kharg would allow the US to control the export capability of Iran, and/or shut it down less catastrophically than outright destruction would achieve. The only issue: it will take the better part of two weeks to get these assets on station and readied for this kind of mission. The US and Israel can continue to demolish the military infrastructure on Kharg in the meantime, but the Hormuz hostaging conflict might take a while to resolve, unless Trump gets tired of the attacks and decides to demolish Kharg’s commercial infrastructure before then.
This is, however, yet another demonstration of Iran’s bad bets on deterrence. The regime thought its ballistic missile and drone systems would prevent an attack on the regime, allowing the ayatollahs to conduct its terror wars on the US, Israel, and the West. The IRGC counted on the threats to the Strait of Hormuz would put too much economic and diplomatic pressure on the US to sustain hostilities. They have bet badly and lost at every turn when it comes to Trump, and they have belatedly learned that these threats turned out to create the necessity to defenestrate this regime entirely.
Addendum: I’ve been writing and talking about the need to secure Kharg Island for almost a week. Here are my earlier posts:
Update: I also discussed this with Tony Katz yesterday on his podcast, along with other issues around the Iran war and CNN’s bizarre spin on the Islamist bombing attack in NYC.
Update: Before giving this order, Trump also echoed Scott Bessent’s claim yesterday that the US Navy is preparing to set up escorts for oil-tanker convoys to reopen the Strait of Hormuz:
US President Donald Trump says the US will soon begin escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz to protect them from Iranian attack, as his administration searches for ways to ease high oil prices fueled by the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Asked when the US Navy will start escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump tells reporters, “It will happen soon.”
Trump is pursuing a multi-layered strategy to reopen the Strait, but he has to keep the offensive pressure on Iran at the same time. Seizing Kharg would make that easier.
Update: Could the USS Tripoli be a head fake? Brent Eastwood argued yesterday at 19FortyFive that the US has enough special-forces resources on hand already to accomplish the seizure of Kharg Island (via longtime enthusiastic reader Tim):
Could the United States seize it? This endeavor would take an intrepid use of special operations forces. This time, it would be SEAL Team Six, a presidential-level asset of the maritime commandos with no equal in Naval Special Operations. This operation might be hazardous, too. The SEALs would likely be delivered by a U.S. submarine and infiltrated by a SEAL delivery vehicle. Operators could also parachute in with a High-Altitude Low Opening (HALO) airborne operation. The Navy could provide helicopters for search and rescue, and the SEALs could hold the location until U.S. Marines could join them for more numbers. Would the SEALs and Marines want to take this island? …
The seizure could also keep the Iranians from using an important source of desperately needed revenue to keep the regime in power. Iran is likely fortifying the island, but they have much reduced naval capacity as many warships have been sunk. But they still have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force that can defend against U.S. special operations attacks. These forces could make a U.S. mission more difficult.
SEAL Team Six and a force of Marines could definitely take the island, but it would spike oil prices so high that Trump may want to avoid such pain at the pump. There could also be U.S. casualties – something that the American people will not stand for. Even a successful mission against the island would prolong the war, as the Iranians would attempt to retake it.
The SEALs and regular ground forces could invade first, and then transition control of the island to the Marine expeditionary force already on the way. The US can keep hammering any remaining military assets Iran has on the island thanks to its air supremacy and massive naval forces in the theater. Tony Katz and I argued this evening about the necessity to do something sooner than two weeks from now. The higher oil prices might be a disincentive here, but Iran has forced that issue already with its attacks on shipping through the Strait.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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