A record 202.9 million Americans shopped during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, the National Retail Federation reported Tuesday.
That’s up from 197 million shoppers last year. It also surpasses the modest 186.9 million that the trade group initially predicted would shop between Thursday and Monday of the long weekend.
“This year’s record turnout reflects a highly engaged consumer who is focused on value, responds to compelling promotions, and seizes upon the opportunity to make the winter holidays special and meaningful,” National Retail Federation CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement.
Conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, the federation’s annual survey found that the average shopper spent $337.86 on seasonal purchases ranging from gifts and holiday clothing to decorations. That’s up from $315.56 last year and is the highest for Thanksgiving weekend since the 2019 record of $361.90.
The federation has projected that retail sales for the entire Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 holiday season will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, up by 3.7% to 4.2% from 2024.
The National Retail Federation surveyed 3,099 adult consumers from Nov. 26-30. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
In an emailed statement, the White House praised the report as vindication of the Trump administration’s economic policies.
“Robust retail sales figures prove that President Trump’s economic agenda is paying off for Americans as inflation cools and real wages rise,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. “The Administration remains focused on building on this progress to restore the historic economy that working-class Americans enjoyed during President Trump’s first term.”
However, some financial analysts reached for comment offered a more mixed assessment.
“A record number of shoppers makes the holiday season look like an economic blockbuster, but sometimes a packed storefront is just a sign that everyone waited for the sales,” said Michael Austin, an economist with the National Center for Public Policy Research’s Project 21, a network of Black conservatives.
Angelica Gianchandani, a New York University marketing instructor, said the National Retail Federation numbers reflect “active spending paired with cautious confidence” as more consumers use artificial intelligence to wait for the lowest prices before buying anything.
“A meaningful share of this growth reflects higher prices, not higher volume,” Ms. Gianchandani said. “Consumers are using AI tools to compare prices instantly and stretch every dollar, which helps drive record activity even in a pressured economy.”
The NRF reported Tuesday that 134.9 million people shopped online during Thanksgiving weekend, up 9% from 124.3 million last year.
The number of in-store shoppers rose by 3% from 126 million to 129.5 million over the same period.
Black Friday remained the top shopping day for both groups, attracting 162 million shoppers total. Cyber Monday came in second for online shoppers, drawing 75.9 million who primarily used mobile phones to place orders.
Nearly half of all Thanksgiving weekend shoppers went to the supermarket, making it the top shopping destination. Also, 45% said they shopped online, 40% went to department stores, 37% visited clothing stores and 30% hit up discount stores.
“The good news is that inflation hasn’t deterred people that much,” said Sean Higgins, an analyst at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, referring to spending keeping pace with population growth.
According to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, prices for goods and services are up by 2.5% to 3% this year, excluding food and energy.
This number is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure because it adjusts to consumers substituting cheaper goods when prices rise.
“Strip that out, and you’ve got a modest real increase, potentially reflecting that consumers are budget-tight and timing their buys around heavy discount days,” said Mr. Austin, a former economic adviser to two Kansas governors.
Correction: A previous version of this story used the wrong number for the share of adults who shopped at department stores during the Thanksgiving weekend.
