Color me skeptical. No one doubts that Iran would very much like to launch 2,000 supermissiles at Israel and surprise them with another war. We’ve known that much about the mullahs’ plans for the past 46 years and counting.
Skepticism about capabilities and strategic positioning? Totally legit. Also, skepticism about this fool on Lebanese TV claiming to know Iran’s ‘secret’ plans while blabbing them to the world? That’s chef’s kiss skepticism, baby:
Lebanese commentator Mohammad Gharawi claims Tehran is preparing for another major confrontation with Israel, warning that “Iran has prepared a ‘new October 7’ to break and annihilate Israel; it can deliver a strategic surprise – launching 2,000 missiles capable of paralyzing the… pic.twitter.com/5fnpV07bs0
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) December 2, 2025
“This is not wishful thinking,” Gharawi declares, “this is reality!” No, this is wishful thinking, on stilts. It’s been a short six months since we saw Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities in twelve days of open war. It had some successes in tactical penetrations of Israel’s combined defenses with the US and other allies, but it didn’t have the strategic deterrence Iran had assumed. If Iran had missile capacities that would “paralyze Israel’s capabilities in a single night,” Iran would have used them in the Twelve Day War. And the regime in Tehran hasn’t had time to rebuild its demonstrated missile infrastructure, let alone take the kind of technological and logistical leap Gharaw claims in this unhinged interview.
Put frankly, this is so false as to be embarrassing. It’s Baghdad Bob territory from a mouthpiece to a regime that fears its loss of regional power resulting from the first October 7 surprise. This is Tehran’s attempt to float propaganda in Lebanese media that will keep up support for Hezbollah and convince the government in Beirut that there is no point in seeking a rapprochement with Israel. Iran needs Hezbollah to put pressure on Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and now Syria. If Lebanon follows through on its commitment to disarm Hezbollah and evict them from the sub-Litani, the mullahs will find themselves more vulnerable in reality than Gharawi claims about Israel in his fever dreams.
The mullahs have apparently tried to open a new front to boost Hezbollah, but the US has already acted to quash the effort. Tehran apparently tried to get Iraq to join in an effort to get relief to Hezbollah in Lebanon, but US envoy Tom Barrack delivered a personal warning to Baghdad to butt out:
US envoy Tom Barrack reportedly warned Iraq’s leader on Sunday that Israel could carry out strikes on militias in Iraq if they seek to aid Lebanese terror group Hezbollah.
Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy on Syria, met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Baghdad.
In a statement, Sudani’s office said the pair discussed “preventing any further escalation in the region,” and that Barrack stressed Iraq’s “constructive and essential role” in such a goal.
The state-owned Saudi Al-Hadath TV network reported Monday that Barrack warned Iraq of a “harsh Israeli strike,” if Iraqi factions seek to intervene in support of Hezbollah.
Citing sources, the station said Barrack told Baghdad that Israel’s operations in Lebanon will “continue until Hezbollah is disarmed.”
The Trump administration has been mainly quiet about Israel’s escalation with Hezbollah after their refusal to disarm. This … is not quiet. This is a public warning that the US will allow Israel to take off the gloves in order to enforce the ceasefires that Trump created in order to bring a real end to Iran’s proxy wars in the region. After the decisive US intervention in the Twelve Day War that ended Iran’s nuclear-weapons programs, that warning carries real weight and credibility.
Israeli retaliation and American intervention aren’t fever dreams from Iran’s Beirut Bob. They are part of the new reality in the region, and everyone knows it. Even the mullahs know it. Maybe especially the mullahs.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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