Democrats should be breaking out in a cold sweat right about now. A new poll from J.L. Partners shows Rep. Elise Stefanik trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by a razor-thin three points in next year’s gubernatorial race, with Hochul at 46% and Stefanik at 43%. That margin falls comfortably within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error, making this a statistical dead heat.
The survey, conducted November 9 and 10 among 500 likely voters and weighted for gender, age, ethnicity, and region, should send alarm bells ringing through Democratic circles in Albany and, frankly, Washington, DC.
This represents a stunning collapse for Hochul. Just a few months ago, a September Siena poll had her up by 25 points over Stefanik, leading 52% to 27%. Before that, an August Siena poll showed a 14-point lead at 45% to 31%, down from a 23-point advantage in June when she led 47% to 24%. The trend line tells a brutal story for the incumbent, and it shows no signs of reversing—especially in the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York City mayoral election.
Even more troubling for Democrats, only 37% of voters say they would vote to reelect Hochul or even consider it, while a decisive 55% say it’s time for someone new. Hochul faces mounting criticism over soaring costs, persistent population outmigration, and controversial criminal justice policies, including cashless bail and parole reforms that have become deeply unpopular with voters.
Naturally, Stefanik has zeroed in on these vulnerabilities, making public safety and affordability the centerpiece of her campaign message, and aligning herself with President Donald Trump’s push to crack down on cashless bail.
When Stefanik formally launched her gubernatorial bid, she called Hochul the worst governor in America and pledged to make New York affordable and safe for all.
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Stefanik isn’t the only Republican in the race, but it’s really no contest there. Stefanik dominates with 74% support among likely GOP voters, while Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman registers just 5%. The primary poll surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and carries a 4.9% margin of error. More than three-quarters of Republican voters view Stefanik favorably, while over 75% either don’t know or have no opinion of Blakeman. J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson summed it up bluntly, saying Stefanik seems to dominate the Republican vote and that it’s a done deal.
When the poll tested Blakeman instead of Stefanik against Hochul, the governor’s lead widened to 47% to 36%, demonstrating that Stefanik is clearly the Republicans’ strongest chance to unseat Hochul.
The pollster’s credibility is worth noting here. J.L. Partners correctly projected Trump’s popular vote and Electoral College victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, earning recognition as one of the most accurate forecasters of that election. The firm now rates the 2026 governor’s race as essentially a coin flip.
Johnson acknowledged that strong Democrat turnout could still save Hochul but said shifting voter trends suggest growing GOP momentum. Republicans have gained thousands of new voters as Democrats lost more than 108,000 over the past year, according to state data.
New York Democrats built their empire on the assumption that the state would stay blue forever. That assumption is crumbling before their eyes. Hochul’s freefall from a 25-point lead to a statistical tie in just months doesn’t happen by accident—it happens when voters decide they’ve had enough. Republicans now have the candidate, the message, and the momentum to flip the governor’s mansion.
And Democrats have to be worried.
Editor’s Note: After more than 40 days of screwing Americans, a few Dems have finally caved. The Schumer Shutdown was never about principle—just inflicting pain for political points.
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