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Voters in Virginia, New Jersey, and other states are heading to the polls Tuesday in high-stakes elections that could provide early indicators of the national political climate ten months into President Trump’s second term and one year before the 2026 midterms. While most races are in Democrat-friendly territory, the outcomes could signal warning signs for both parties.
In Virginia’s governor’s race, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger holds a steady polling lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger has positioned herself as a pragmatic problem-solver focused on energy, housing, and health care costs, while tying Earle-Sears to Trump’s federal agency cuts that have affected Virginia’s 140,000 government workers. Earle-Sears has countered by attacking Spanberger on transgender issues and pressuring her over Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who reportedly sent 2022 text messages about killing the then-Republican House speaker. The revelations have boosted Republican attorney general Jay Miyares’s re-election chances. All 100 Virginia House of Delegates seats are contested, with Democrats hoping to expand their majority to enable congressional redistricting.
New Jersey’s governor’s race offers Republicans their most attractive pickup opportunity. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, faces Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli in his third gubernatorial run. Sherrill has branded Ciattarelli as the “Trump of Trenton” and vowed to resist White House policies on tariffs and abortion, though critics say she appears too choreographed. Ciattarelli argues New Jersey needs a governor who can work with Washington and has pledged to roll back sanctuary policies and lower property taxes. Recent polls show Sherrill leading by just 3 points as Ciattarelli gains momentum.
In New York’s mayoral race, Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani shocked the political world by defeating former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by nearly 13 points in the Democratic primary. The 34-year-old state assemblyman is running on an ambitious platform including free child care, city-run grocery stores, and a four-year rent freeze, funded by higher taxes on the wealthy. Cuomo is now running as an independent, while Trump called Mamdani a “communist” and threatened to withhold federal funds if he wins. Mamdani has divided Democrats, earning endorsements from Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez but not Chuck Schumer.
California voters will decide on Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s referendum to replace independent redistricting with Democratic-friendly congressional maps, responding to Republican gerrymandering in Texas.
Read more: Off-year elections Tuesday to tap voter mood from coast to coast
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