NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
President Trump and his administration are vehemently denouncing reports quoting a secret Defense Intelligence Agency preliminary assessment that asserts the post-bombing damage at Iran’s nuclear facilities was limited.
Mr. Trump said during a press conference in The Hague that “fake news” reported falsely on the early DIA assessment that said the Iranians could quickly reconstitute their nuclear program in days or months.
“The report said what it said,” Mr. Trump said in response to a reporter’s question, adding that the bomb damage was severe. “But they had no idea. They shouldn’t have issued a report until they did” a more complete assessment.
The DIA assessment issued shortly after the Saturday raid stated with “low confidence” that the Iranian nuclear program could be back in operation in a period ranging from one to two months to less than a year.
The DIA report was based on satellite images and signals intelligence gathered after the strikes and was focused on the underground site at Fordo that was hit by 12 of the 14 GBU-57 ground penetrating bombs.
Mr. Trump also quoted Israel’s Atomic Energy Agency as assessing that the B-2 raid and Tomahawk missile attacks on three sites had set back Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons for “many years.”
The president singled out CNN and The New York Times with harsh criticism for what he said was hyping the DIA view of the damage as not bad.
“Well it was so bad they ended the war. It ended the war,” Mr. Trump said.
Mr. Trump also disputed the DIA claim that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium may have been moved before the strikes. “I think all of the nuclear stuff is down there because it’s very hard to remove,” he said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said leaks of intelligence, like the DIA report, are frustrating because the assessments are often disclosed by people seeking to embarrass the administration.
“So the bottom line is [the Iranians] are much further away from a nuclear weapon today than they were before the president took this bold action,” he told Politico. “That’s the most important thing to understand. Significant, very significant, substantial damage was done to a variety of different components, and we’re just learning more about it.”
A full bomb damage assessment will be difficult because 12 penetrating bombs went 300 feet into a mountain and “I don’t think we’re going to be sending anyone down the hole anytime soon into those mountains,” Mr. Rubio said.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement that several of Iran’s nuclear sites were severely damaged in the raid.
“During these attacks, we have seen extensive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities,” he said, noting some localized enriched uranium and chemical releases inside the facilities and no increased radiation levels outside.
A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghaei, also said Wednesday the country’s nuclear facilities were heavily damaged by the American strikes.
“Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure,” Mr. Baghaei was quoted as saying to Al Jazeera.
Retired Navy Capt. Pete O’Brien, a former intelligence official, said a complete damage assessment of the GBU-57 penetrator bomb and Tomahawk missile strikes on Iran nuclear sites will take time to do well.
“Folks who have never had to walk through that process should understand that this can be a tricky process even under the best of circumstances,” Capt. O’Brien said. “There are endless incidents where bombs and other weapons appear to score direct hits on a target yet the target seems to miraculously survive. And there are other incidents where a single round hits and seems to do nothing but ends up destroying the entire complex or sinking the battleship.”
The depth of the Fordo complex, known to be a major nuclear facility, was 300 feet underground and which makes an assessment more difficult.
“And even if we have some terribly secret source – the Ayatollah’s butler, perhaps – who knows if reports being sent to the Ayatollah are accurate? Might his minions be telling him what he wants to hear?”
Capt. O’Brien said there are things to be drawn from the strikes that he called strategic BDA.
China’s propaganda outlets have claimed that U.S. penetrator bombs have not caused significant damage.
But the fact remains, U.S. weapons systems work well when needed.
“Folks like the folks in Beijing or the Kremlin should be careful in discounting U.S. systems and U.S. forces,” he said.
Another strategic message is that there are military operations that U.S. forces can do that adversaries cannot, and that fighting the U.S. may not be as easy as their generals have claimed.
Another key result that may not be visible outside the U.S. military is that there is a great deal of quiet satisfaction with the recent action.
Forty-five years ago, Iranian students took over the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and, instead of the government condemning it, they sided with the students and endorsed the seizure that was effectively an act of war.
Additionally, Iran was directly responsible for the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing and the bombing of both the U.S. and the French embassies in Beirut.
A total of 220 Marines, 18 Navy sailors and 3 Army soldiers were killed in the barracks blast, and 19 more Americans were killed at the U.S. embassy bombing the same year.
Iran also has been a de facto parent of Hezbollah which conducted a host of attacks on Americans and was behind the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia in 1996 that killed 19 Americans and wounded nearly 500 U.S. and allied soldiers.
In Iraq, Iran also funded and supplied hundreds of shaped charges that killed more than 600 U.S. soldiers and wounded literally thousands more.
Past administrations used words and diplomacy saying Iran could not obtain nuclear weapons, but Mr. Trump has taken action that will achieve that goal.
China analyst: B-2 raid to surge Chinese military intelligence collection on bombers
Communist China is expected to step up intelligence analysis of President Trump and U.S. military strike capabilities after the Pentagon’s dispatch of B-2 bombers to Guam in a deception operation designed to keep the secrecy of Saturday’s B-2 raid on Iran.
“Xi Jinping is now demanding his intelligence services provide a whole new assessment of Donald Trump’s statements on nuclear weapons from the Trump 45 administration and even before,” said former State Department China hand John Tkacik.
Increased intelligence collection by the Ministry of State Security likely will include questioning North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for new details of his past exchanges with Mr. Trump during meetings in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019.
The Chinese will also want to know if Mr. Trump has a sophisticated grasp of strike weaponry.
China also will try to determine if the U.S. under Mr. Trump has updated the use of B-2s in the single integrated operational plan, or SIOP, the pre-determined nuclear war plan for China, Mr. Tkacik said.
“The bottom line is the deployment of B-2s, their support and logistical infrastructure to Guam gives Xi Jinping considerable pause — not just with his Taiwan planning but with the Philippines, South China Sea, and Japan,” he said.
Mr. Tkacik said China’s advanced satellite reconnaissance and surveillance network had early warning of several B-2s deployed to Diego Garcia last month. “So they went hunting around for the air mobile B-2 support units for an idea of how the Air Force plans and organizes strategic bombing campaigns for this never-before-used system,” he said.
People’s Liberation Army units charged with monitoring B-2 bombers were probably surprised by the Iran raid because no one knew what Mr. Trump was planning. The PLA also probably was fooled by his announced plan that a decision on any bombing of Iran was two weeks away.
After the Iran strikes, PLA intelligence likely searched for indicators and telemetry from command and control systems of the bombers by working backward from imagery at the U.S. bomber base, deployment of air refueling units and ground preparations.
China views Guam as closer to strategic targets in China and North Korea than Iran, and PLA analysts probably think the U.S. island requires a major upgrade to support B-2 combat operations in the western Pacific, Mr. Tkacik said.
If the Pentagon is considering attacks on hardened missile and nuclear sites in China during a future Taiwan conflict, that would pose an entirely new strategic environment for the PLA, he said.
“The PLA air force is now scratching its collective head asking, ‘What on Earth would a couple of B-2s strikes do in China?’ A B-2 strike on China would escalate in a nanosecond,” Mr. Tkacik said.
Centcom nominee vows to counter China in Middle East
Vice Adm. Charles B. Cooper, the nominee to be the next commander of the U.S. Central Command, told Congress that one mission of the command is to confront Chinese influence in the Middle East.
China is continuing to expand diplomatic and economic influence in the region and is used to oppose American security interests, Adm. Cooper said in written answers to questions from the Senate Armed Services Committee.
A reformed foreign military sales system will help U.S. allies and partners in the Middle East and is a way to counter Chinese inroads, he stated.
“A more streamlined foreign military sales process would help expand on our influence in the region and prevent countries from turning to Russia and China when purchasing military equipment,” Adm. Cooper said.
Another area that the admiral said he would undertake greater efforts is in efforts to counter Chinese and Russian influence operations in the Middle East.
“Words and deeds matter,” Adm. Cooper said. “U.S. Centcom has been able to highlight several instances where the United States supports our partners in times of need while Russia and China stand on the sidelines.”
Humanitarian assistance sent to Gaza, freedom of navigation operations in a regional strategic chokepoint, and theater missile defenses are some examples of the U.S. commitment to the region.
Centcom is also investing heavily in military-to-military relations with Middle East states.
“Our presence is felt across the region. Nations want to partner with the United States,” he said.
