And we have some lovely dachas on the trendy part of Moscow, tovarisch.
Iran’s foreign minister flew to Moscow yesterday, ostensibly to get Russia to engage as a counterweight in its 46-year war against the US and Israel. Instead, Abbas Araghchi got plenty of sympathy from Vladimir Putin … and not much else. Putin has already bitten off more than he can chew in Ukraine, and has no plans to escalate matters by confronting a suddenly assertive and angry Donald Trump:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has slammed attacks on Iran as “unprovoked” and “unjustified” in a meeting with Tehran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, but did not announce any concrete support to his key ally in the Middle East. https://t.co/8GAeAUMngN pic.twitter.com/tEByZ6sRom
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 23, 2025
In fact, it sounds as though Putin will insist that Araghchi return to Iran to personally send a message to Ali Khamenei. The message amounts to something akin to a line from Airplane!: “Good luck, we’re all behind you.”
Putin to Iran FM Araqchi: “We are doing our best to support the Iranian people. Please pass along my regards to the President and the Supreme Leader.” pic.twitter.com/U4LaOqGm7S
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 23, 2025
The Washington Post reports further on the meeting, noting that Putin scolded Trump for his “absolutely unprovoked” attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Putin must have the same amnesia about Iranian attacks on Americans over the last 46 years that afflicts some Democrats, but he’s not yet so non compos mentis as to pick a fight with Trump at the moment. Apparently, Putin’s not inclined to help Iran in part because the Iranians didn’t join him in his attempt to conquer Ukraine:
The U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran have underscored Putin’s declining capacity to influence events in the Middle East — once a key plank of his foreign policy — with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria last year, Moscow’s cooler relations with Israel and Putin’s failed effort to convince President Donald Trump that he could be a mediator in the Iran crisis.
The war has also demonstrated the limits so far to Russia’s willingness to assist Iran militarily — after both sides signed a strategic agreement in January without a mutual defense clause.
The treaty stipulated only that the two sides would not help any country that attacked the other, indicating Russia’s unwillingness to intervene in the Middle East at a time when its military capacity is stretched by its war on Ukraine, but also Iran’s unwillingness to send troops to assist Russia’s war effort.
After watching the performance of the Iranian military the last two weeks, not to mention its leadership, perhaps Putin should be more grateful than annoyed at that refusal. The Israelis just exposed this supposedly vaunted Islamic military as completely incompetent, hopelessly outgunned, and now sitting ducks for anyone.
That’s one reason for Putin to offer nothing more than tea or sympathy. Iran’s value as an ally just plunged to nearly zero, especially since it will be a long time before Khamenei can supply them with the drones that are critical to Putin’s war in Ukraine. The US strike on the nuclear facilities were relatively antiseptic; the IDF has absolutely defenestrated Iran’s military capabilities, and at some point will focus on their commissariat in order to peel back the mullahs’ grip on their subjugated populace. The Israelis have already targeted Basij facilities a few times, as well as police resources in Tehran. The longer Iran refuses to deal honestly with the results of the war they spent nearly a half-century provoking, the less value the mullahs will have to Putin.
Or, for that matter, China. Will Araghchi fly to Beijing next? If anything, China has been even quieter about the war than Russia, although they did join Putin in floating a UN Security Council resolution that would demand an “unconditional ceasefire.” (The US will veto it immediately, and the UK may join us.) China needs Iranian oil, but it flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians have threatened to close. If that happens, the US Navy’s three carrier battle groups will reopen it toute suite, and likely put a stop to Iranian oil exports for a good long while. They lose either way, which means they have a vested interest in getting the Iranians to stop while they’re behind.
Araghchi had better plan to hear lots of sympathy from the friendly regimes with which Iran has curried favor over the last few decades, but not much more. Russia doesn’t have the resources to push further into Ukraine, let alone take on the US in its newly assertive positions regarding the “Death to America” cult in Tehran. China has the resources, ostensibly, but also has a military that — like Iran’s — has never really been tested since Mao. Either he’ll fly home empty-handed, or perhaps he won’t fly home at all. Those dachas are pretty enticing, and have the added value of not being on the IDF hit parade.
