Developments continue apace in Israel and Iran, where the two bitter enemies will enter their fourth day of war. Earlier today, news reports had the Iranians asking erstwhile intermediaries to pressure Israel into cease-fire negotiations, albeit on the same terms as before — with Iran maintaining its nuclear enrichment programs and with the usual “Death to Israel” and “Death to the Great Satan” messaging.
That didn’t work out so well, apparently, so the mullahs asked Vladimir Putin to intercede with Donald Trump. According to Israel Hayom — and no one else so far — Trump told Putin that he wasn’t going to stop Israel from finishing off the Iranian threat. That’s when Putin allegedly pulled out a Blazing Saddles routine and ordered Russian diplomatic personnel to get out of Tehran.
Reportedly, anyway:
Russia has started taking an active role in the diplomatic efforts surrounding the conflict between Iran and Israel. According to information obtained by Israel Hayom, Putin initiated a phone call with his American counterpart, President Trump, at Iran’s request.
Following the conversation, in which Trump likely made it clear that he would not restrain Israel, Putin sent a warning to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, stating that his regime is in danger. Putin informed Khamenei of the call’s outcomes and advised him to move quickly toward negotiations. Additionally, Putin ordered the evacuation of Russian embassy personnel from Tehran.
“Son … you’re on your own”:
Do I believe this report? Trump did tell ABC News that Putin wanted to act as an intermediary, and that he welcomed any help to bring the war to a conclusion. Given that Putin is (a) not interested in a peace he could unilaterally establish by ending his assault on Ukraine and (b) Putin is relying on Iran to produce drones to avoid (a), that doesn’t sound like the best idea this weekend. However, Putin will try to intercede anyway, even if Trump’s not inclined to help him out.
And Trump did have a different perspective today shortly after this call supposedly took place:
President Trump on Israel and Iran: “Sometimes, they have to fight it out.” pic.twitter.com/56DacHFISc
— Lafayette-Grant Scanner (@Lafayette_Grant) June 15, 2025
And this is one of those times. There is no alternative to it, not even now, given that the Iranians still want to keep enriching uranium even while suing for peace and firing off the ballistic missiles that they wanted to tip with nukes. As Trump also pointed out earlier, that presents a national security threat not just to Israel but to everyone in the region, including US forces that operate from that region.
Back to the question: Just how reliable is this report from Israel Hayom? It’s certainly possible; if the regime falls, Russia loses a key supplier of the drones that Putin’s using to erode Ukrainian fighting capacity, and that source will not be easily replaced. In fact, Khamenei probably wishes now that he’d kept that inventory now, so even if the regime manages to stagger through this, Khamenei may not be a great source for more munitions for a while.
On the other hand, that which is too good to be true (or too good to check) usually turns out to be wishcasting rather than reality.
There are a number of other claims being made this evening that have yet to be substantiated as well. For instance, there have been reports that the IDF targeted a part of Tehran for an intense attack where Ali Khamenei and his family may be hiding. That also has been reported more generically as an attack on a “high ranking” official. Ron M rounded up some of the other chatter this evening a couple of hours ago:
🚨 There are a lot of wild reports going on right now.. That Israel is..
▪️ Striking the FORDOW nuclear mountain fortress facility.
▪️ Striking the Isfahan nuclear technology center again..
▪️ Striking PARCHIN, where Iran has previously carried out nuclear weapon trigger… https://t.co/tzJ1l9HvfX pic.twitter.com/CHkS2NQ3hm
— Ron M. (@Jewtastic) June 15, 2025
We also know that the Israeli government issued an extraordinarily lengthy shelter-in-place order to the entire country. The implication is that an operation is taking place that will generate a massive retaliatory response. The question now is what the Iranians might have left:
Despite sustained Israeli airstrikes, Iran has managed to continue launching ballistic missiles – a feat that can be attributed to the Islamic Republic’s long-standing military doctrine, decentralized infrastructure, and upgraded survivability tactics.
According to IDF assessments, Iran began the current conflict with approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles of varying ranges and warhead types. These posed a threat to Israeli territory via a few hundred launch systems.
The bigger issue may not be the remaining missile inventory but the launchers. Israel could choke off these attacks by disabling enough launchers to make any salvos smaller and therefore more manageable by Israeli and US ABM systems like THAAD, David’s Sling, Iron Dome, etc. Israel is trying to reduce both inventory and launchers, but taking out the leadership is likely their best opportunity to end the ballistic missile attacks for good.
Finally, here’s another report that has yet to be fully confirmed, and it is also very good … if maybe not too good to be true:
BREAKING: Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa has announced that Syrian airspace is now open to intercept Iranian drones and missiles.
Incredible.
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) June 15, 2025
Update: On second thought, I changed “fun” to “good” in the headline. “Fun” might be too glib in this deadly business, even for a somewhat lighter take.
One other point to keep in mind while watching Iran’s military and governmental catastrophe — this regime hasn’t been tested in decades. They have used proxies rather than their own forces ever since the end of the Iran-Iraq War, which they badly managed. They have had nearly 40 years of building their regime on loyalty and theological ideology rather than experience and expertise. The Israelis have spent the last 77 years being tested in battle, forming its military and government under constant existential threats. In that sense, perhaps we shouldn’t be that surprised to find out that the Iranian regime is filled with incompetents.
