Eeeeenteresting. Earlier today, the Wall Street Journal reported that Russian negotiators rejected Donald Trump’s formula for a cease-fire. Was that a negotiating ploy itself?
Perhaps — and it’s equally likely that Vladimir Putin’s cautious and conditioned approval is the same kind of tactic:
Putin just voiced very preliminary and conditional support for the 30-day cease-fire proposal from the United States and Ukraine. He said “we definitely support” the idea, but that a number of “questions” remained to be discussed.
Putin said those questions included the fate of Ukraine’s forces that continue to occupy a small part of Russia’s Kursk region, suggesting that he may demand Ukraine order its troops there to lay down their arms.
The open questions, Putin said, also include whether Ukraine would be able to continue receiving arms shipments during the 30-day cease-fire, and how the cease-fire would be monitored and enforced. “The idea itself is the right one, and we support it,” Putin said. “But there are questions that we need to discuss, and I think that we need to talk them through with our American colleagues and partners.”
As the New York Times’ Anton Troianovski later noted, that’s not a yes, but it’s certainly not a no. Putin probably won’t agree to talks until Ukrainian forces withdraw from Kursk altogether, a gambit that the Washington Examiner’s Jamie McIntyre foresaw earlier this morning:
While Washington awaits Moscow’s response to the proposed 30-day ceasefire, Russian President Vladimir Putin is giving an answer of sorts, unleashing another night of drone and missile attacks across a wide area of Ukraine and donning military garb to visit his troops on the front line in Kursk, where he hopes to reclaim lost Russian territory before agreeing to any negotiations.
“Around a hundred ‘Shahed’ drones attack Ukraine each night. Missile strikes are regular. Some of our civilian infrastructure and ports have been hit, unfortunately, including in Odesa,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on X. “The key factor is our partners’ ability to ensure Russia’s readiness not to deceive but to genuinely end the war. Because right now, Russian strikes have not stopped.”
On Wednesday, Putin received an update in Kursk from his top commander, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who reported that Russia had regained control of 86% of the territory Ukraine captured in a surprise offensive last August. “The Kyiv regime planned to create a so-called strategic foothold in the Kursk Region, to be subsequently used as political leverage in potential talks with Russia,” Gerasimov told Putin, according to the official Kremlin website. “These plans have fallen through.”
Well, apparently those plans have not “fallen through” entirely. If they had, then Putin wouldn’t have demanded a withdrawal from Kursk as a prerequisite to cease-fire negotiations.
However, Putin seems to accept that negotiations could take place and that he’s willing to engage — but has some reservations about enforcement:
The Russian president asks who will decide where a “violation of the possible ceasefire agreement” has taken place along 2000km (1242.7 miles) – possibly referring to the length of the border between Russia and Ukraine.
“All these issues need to be painstakingly studied by both sides,” he says, adding that the idea of a ceasefire is “good and we absolutely support it but there are issues that we need to discuss”.
Putin says he believes “we need to negotiate with our American colleagues and partners” and “maybe” have a phone call with US President Donald Trump.
“The very idea of ending this conflict by peaceful means, we support that.”
That’s certainly one hopeful sign. However, Putin also suggested that he wants talks to encompass the “original causes” of the war, a reference to NATO expansion over the last two decades. Putin will want concessions there to save some face for the massive losses and small gains he will get out of his three-year war, but NATO is not going to return to status quo ante 2000 either. Russian aggression has changed the security situation for Eastern Europe, and Putin has to own those consequences of his own actions too. Perhaps NATO will agree to return to its deployment posture prior to January 2022, but no one’s going to trust Putin enough again to scale down defenses in NATO countries, especially in the Balkans.
Still, the fact that Putin may accept a cease-fire for negotiations is the most optimistic sign since the invasion began in February 2022. Trump has succeeded in advancing the cause of peace further than anyone in Europe or the US has done in three years of war. But that doesn’t mean much unless Putin’s willing to end the war — and if Volodymyr Zelensky is as well.
