The Pentagon is finding itself in one of the first wars of the new Trump administration — a clash with the previous Biden administration over who deserves the credit for a turnaround in military recruiting numbers after a long period of decline.
The stakes may seem small, but they are already playing into a larger narrative by the new leadership at the Defense Department that a fresh embrace of what Mr. Hegseth has called a “warrior ethos” will reverse a number of negative trends in the ranks, including a misguided swerve to emphasizing diversity and equality that, they say, drove away large numbers of potential recruits.
President Trump has cited rising military enlistment figures at the start of his administration as proof that the Pentagon’s recent abysmal recruiting efforts are a thing of the past, thanks to his “America first” agenda.
In his March 4 address to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump said the changes he’s ordered inside the Defense Department — including slashing “woke” social justice programs like diversity training — have enhanced enlistment in ways that haven’t been seen for years.
“I’m pleased to report that in January, the U.S. Army had its single best recruiting month in 15 years and that all armed services are having among the best recruiting results ever in the history of our country,” he said. “What a tremendous turnaround. They love our country and they love being in our military again.”
However, analysts and some members of the Biden administration argue Mr. Trump’s account skates over several uncomfortable facts, including that the Army was on track to hit its 2025 enlistment mark even before Mr. Trump’s November victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Days before he took office, former Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the service was on pace to bring in 61,000 recruits by the end of the 2025 fiscal year, the second straight year where the Army exceeded its goal.
“What’s really remarkable is that the first quarter contracts that we have signed are the highest rate in the last 10 years. We are going like gangbusters, which is terrific,” Ms. Wormuth told the Associated Press.
The rebound came just in time, as public opinion polls showed a plunging level of public confidence in the military after decades in which it rates as 70% approval or higher.
“In 2022 and 2023, the Army missed its recruitment goal by nearly 25% — about fifteen thousand troops a year,” the New Yorker noted in a survey of the recruitment crisis earlier this year. “It hit the mark last year, but only by reducing the target by more than ten thousand. The Navy has also fared badly: it failed to reach its goals in 2023, then met them in 2024 by filling out the ranks with recruits of a lower standard.”
The Army Reserve, the article noted, has failed to reach its benchmark recruiting goal in nearly a decade, “and the ranks are so depleted that active-duty officers have been put in charge of reserve units.”
The military has faced recruiting challenges for about a decade as the U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan began winding down. The armed forces also have had to compete with the private sector with a jobless rate in the low single digits, which can often offer employment with similar if not better pay and benefits.
On top of that, only about a quarter of young adults are physically or mentally qualified to serve without a waiver.
Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered military recruiting stations and in-person recruiting at schools that the military has long relied upon to bring in fresh troops.
Waiting for the data
Amid the partisan credit-claiming, scholars of U.S. recruiting trends say that, for now, it’s too soon to tell who has the better argument.
“We just don’t have the data on whether the people who are joining right now are joining because of the policy changes surrounding the new administration,” said Taren Sylvester, who studies military recruiting at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington. “But it’s a trend we’ve been seeing over the last couple of years — swinging back towards a more positive recruiting environment.”
Some of the new personnel numbers may be a result of the fresh troops who previously signed up under delayed entry programs. That’s where recruits can lock in benefits like a choice of duty assignment before they even formally enlist.
Mr. Hegseth, a former Army infantry officer who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, said young men and women now want to join the military because they reject the “diversity equity, and inclusion” philosophy of the past administration and embrace the traditional military mission of fighting wars and defending the homeland.
“I think we’ve seen enthusiasm and excitement from young men and women who want to join the military because they are interested in being part of the finest fighting force the world has to offer and not doing a lot of other things that serve oftentimes too often to divide or distract,” Mr. Hegseth said during a town hall meeting at the Pentagon soon after he took over as defense chief.
In the face of repeated shortfalls, the nation’s military services are also looking at new ways to attract a new generation of recruits.
The Defense Department’s willingness to update its recruiting structure to meet current trends could bear fruit in the future. The Army has created a specific military recruiting career field rather than drafting infantry or tank soldiers for the job. The Air Force has opened nearly 300 billets in military recruiting, Ms. Sylvester said.
“They are able to build the skills that make recruiters better at their jobs, which then impacts recruitment on the other end,” she said.
It will take three to five years for analysts to have sufficient information to conclude whether the latest positive trends in military recruiting will have a long-term impact, Ms. Sylvester said.
“But the numbers are definitely better than what we saw in 2024, which is way better than we saw in 2023 and 2022,” she said. “A lot of the credit should go to the people who are out on the streets doing the recruiting and trying to really connect with young Americans today.”
